Zell, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

036
FXUS63 KABR 171930
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
230 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low pressure will continue to circulate over the area bringing a
prolonged period of wet conditions that will persist through the end
of the work week. Highest chances for rainfall will be today through
Thursday night where much of the area has a 60-90 percent chance for
showers and thunderstorms.
- Rainfall amounts over the next 3 days include a widespread 1-2
inches across most of the area with localized amounts of more than 2
inches.
- Drier conditions and seasonal temperatures are expected to return
this weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
As of 2 PM CDT, showers and non-severe thunderstorms continue across
the region. These are expected to continue through the end of the
work week. The heaviest rainfall amounts will be through tonight.
Temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s around and west of the
Missouri River, and a little warmer to the east, in the upper 60s to
low 70s. Winds are generally out of the northeast.
Tonight, the upper level portion of the low pressure system
currently over our area will be over western SD while the lower
portion will be over more central SD. This low will continue to
circulate over the area through the end of the work week. The low
weakens into a trough late Friday into Saturday, continues to move
east through the end of the weekend and some much drier air moves in
from the north. Clusters show an upper level ridge moving in Monday
and continuing to move east through the end of the period. Down in
the lower levels models are showing a low pressure system move
across the forecast area Tuesday, although exact placement varies.
Showers and thunderstorms continue through the end of the work week
as this low continues to circulate over the area. The heaviest rain
is expected through tonight as models are showing a dry slot form on
the eastern side of the low Thursday morning and as we lose some of
our forcing. As for totals, NBM is showing the probability of more
than 2 inches in 72 hours (ending Saturday morning) as 45-70% west
river. East of the Missouri River, the better probability is for 1
inch at around 70-80% for that same 72 hours. WPC has put a slight
risk of excessive rainfall over western and central SD, highlighting
the risk of local flooding due to heavy rain (PWAT values in the
97.5th NAEFS percentile). As the trough moves off, some showers
could linger into Saturday, even Sunday depending on speed of the
trough.
Temperatures the next few days will be a little cooler due to cloud
cover, but not too much cooler since we also have some WAA on the
east side of this low. Highs this weekend are expected to warm back
up into the upper 70s to low 80s. Models are showing an area of CAA
Monday which will cool our temperatures just a little and these
cooler highs look to continue into mid-week. Winds may be a little
stronger Monday as we get that CAA, but not too much stronger.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
A low pressure system moving through the area this afternoon and
tonight will rotate increasing low level moisture into the area,
leading to lowering ceilings, the potential for some fog, and
continued opportunities for rain showers and a few thunderstorms.
Will get another surge of rain this afternoon over much of the
area, which will then pivot to the northwest and focus more over
central SD later tonight and into Thursday. As that occurs, the
increased low level moisture will bring ceilings/vsbys down to IFR
or lower values. Expect the lowest vsbys from fog to be along the
Coteau and at KATY late tonight and into Thursday morning, where
vsbys could drop to 1/2sm. Finally, tried to be very conservative
on PROB30s for thunder this afternoon and tonight. Can`t rule it
out at any point through tonight, but felt that most locations
had the best opportunity during the late afternoon and evening
hours. Expect the showers to become scattered/isolated we head
into Thursday at KABR/KATY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SRF

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion