Akin, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

431
FXUS62 KCHS 240547
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
147 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving storm system could affect the area later this
week and into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Aloft, the forecast area will sit on the southwest
periphery of the large upper low centered across the Great Lakes
region. Flow in the mid-levels will start off the day west-
southwest and gradually turn more southwesterly through the day
with no embedded shortwaves poised to pass through. At the
surface, the high to the east over the Atlantic will be the
primary feature and drive southerly flow across the forecast
area. Concerning convective chances this afternoon, the model
consensus favors a dry forecast. Model soundings generally show
very warm profiles with either weak or non-existent instability.
It does look like a member or two of the HREF is trying to kick
off a few showers, which seems to be similar to the activity we
have seen the last couple of days. The forecast will feature a
dry forecast, but it can`t be completely ruled out that we see
an isolated weak shower or two. Temperatures are forecast to
again be well above normal with upper 80s to low 90s for
southeast SC and low to even mid 90s for southeast GA. This will
yield heat index values peaking around 100 degrees in some
areas. So, well below Heat Advisory criteria but certainly
uncomfortable for late September.
Tonight: Overnight, the forecast area will sit in the region
between a cold front draped across the central/lower MS Valley
and high pressure over the Atlantic. The area should remain
devoid of any notable forcing and the forecast remains dry. Warm
southwest flow will keep temperatures elevated and lows about 5
degrees above normal. Look for lows to only dip into the low
70s in most place with locations along the coast only in the mid
70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For Thursday, expect another warm day as h850 temperatures
remain near 18-19 deg C resulting in another day with high
temperatures in the mid 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast.
As a longwave trough and associated shortwaves begin to move
towards the region from the west, there is a low-end chance
(~20%) for isolated showers and scattered thunderstorms
developing during the afternoon hours, though convection
allowing models are trending towards keeping a dry forecast
Thursday afternoon. In the off-chance that a thunderstorm is
able to develop and sustain itself, 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE would
allow for a strong to potentially severe thunderstorm or two.
However, 0-6km bulk shear values are below 10 knots which would
tend to lead to rather unorganized convection, so overall there
is a low- end risk for strong/severe weather and if it occurred
it would be a rather short-lived. Otherwise, the surface
pressure gradient will be increased as the surface cold front
approaches from the west, resulting in marginally breezy
southwesterly to southeasterly winds gusting into the upper
teens. Not sure we`ll completely decouple overnight like the NBM
is suggesting, keeping overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower
70s.
While we will likely see a break from the rain for a few hours
Friday morning, chances for rain return during the afternoon
hours as additional shortwaves begin to lift from the base of
the slow moving upper level trough, in addition to the cold
front moving through during the afternoon hours. Previously,
additional lift from the upper level jet was expected, with the
latest runs indicating a more complicated coupled-jet
interaction, likely still producing additional synoptic-scale
lift. Given the multitude of forcing mechanisms for showers and
thunderstorms, with precipitable water values approaching 2
inches, WPC continues to highlight the area with a marginal risk
(level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall. While chances for
severe weather look to be low (

NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion