Your favorites:

Akin, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

431
FXUS62 KCHS 240547
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 147 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS... A slow moving storm system could affect the area later this week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, the forecast area will sit on the southwest periphery of the large upper low centered across the Great Lakes region. Flow in the mid-levels will start off the day west- southwest and gradually turn more southwesterly through the day with no embedded shortwaves poised to pass through. At the surface, the high to the east over the Atlantic will be the primary feature and drive southerly flow across the forecast area. Concerning convective chances this afternoon, the model consensus favors a dry forecast. Model soundings generally show very warm profiles with either weak or non-existent instability. It does look like a member or two of the HREF is trying to kick off a few showers, which seems to be similar to the activity we have seen the last couple of days. The forecast will feature a dry forecast, but it can`t be completely ruled out that we see an isolated weak shower or two. Temperatures are forecast to again be well above normal with upper 80s to low 90s for southeast SC and low to even mid 90s for southeast GA. This will yield heat index values peaking around 100 degrees in some areas. So, well below Heat Advisory criteria but certainly uncomfortable for late September.

Tonight: Overnight, the forecast area will sit in the region between a cold front draped across the central/lower MS Valley and high pressure over the Atlantic. The area should remain devoid of any notable forcing and the forecast remains dry. Warm southwest flow will keep temperatures elevated and lows about 5 degrees above normal. Look for lows to only dip into the low 70s in most place with locations along the coast only in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... For Thursday, expect another warm day as h850 temperatures remain near 18-19 deg C resulting in another day with high temperatures in the mid 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast. As a longwave trough and associated shortwaves begin to move towards the region from the west, there is a low-end chance (~20%) for isolated showers and scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours, though convection allowing models are trending towards keeping a dry forecast Thursday afternoon. In the off-chance that a thunderstorm is able to develop and sustain itself, 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE would allow for a strong to potentially severe thunderstorm or two. However, 0-6km bulk shear values are below 10 knots which would tend to lead to rather unorganized convection, so overall there is a low- end risk for strong/severe weather and if it occurred it would be a rather short-lived. Otherwise, the surface pressure gradient will be increased as the surface cold front approaches from the west, resulting in marginally breezy southwesterly to southeasterly winds gusting into the upper teens. Not sure we`ll completely decouple overnight like the NBM is suggesting, keeping overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

While we will likely see a break from the rain for a few hours Friday morning, chances for rain return during the afternoon hours as additional shortwaves begin to lift from the base of the slow moving upper level trough, in addition to the cold front moving through during the afternoon hours. Previously, additional lift from the upper level jet was expected, with the latest runs indicating a more complicated coupled-jet interaction, likely still producing additional synoptic-scale lift. Given the multitude of forcing mechanisms for showers and thunderstorms, with precipitable water values approaching 2 inches, WPC continues to highlight the area with a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall. While chances for severe weather look to be low (

NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion

WeatherForYou.com, LLC is not responsible for any damages or problems caused by this service. Current weather conditions are obtained from the closest government operated station, a personal station contributing to the PWSweather.com network or from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS). Some weather information is powered by XWeather. WeatherForYou.com, NOAA, AerisWeather and their data providers disclaim liability of any kind whatsoever, including, without limitation, liability for quality, performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose arising out of the use or inability to use the data. Like all things, this site belongs to Jesus Christ ... He just trusts us to maintain it. If you have any questions or comments please use the suggestion box.

Copyright © 1999 - 2025, WeatherForYou.com LLC. All rights reserved.