Alpine, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

090
FXUS64 KMAF 210734
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
234 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 220 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Near-record high temperatures expected today and Monday, with
  Monday being the warmest day.
- Low (10-30%) storm chances return Tuesday afternoon and early
  evening across the eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and
  Davis Mountains. The primary threats for the strongest storms
  will be brief heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds.
- A cold front moves through late Tuesday night and Wednesday
  bringing temperatures to near/slightly below normal. Rain
  chances around 20-40% during this timeframe.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A quieter night with light winds and a few clouds is apparent on
both IR satellite imagery and radar early this morning.
South/southeast winds will shift to southwest/west with a
downsloping component today. This allows highs to rise to near
record levels, with mid to upper 90s F, mid to upper 80s F higher
elevations, and upper 90s F to triple digits along Rio Grande from
Presidio Valley into Big Bend. Mid to upper ridging aloft will
continue to build ahead of deepening mid to upper troughing over the
Pacific Coast. Main change for Sunday was addition of low (15%-20%)
probability of showers/storms over Davis and Glass Mountains into
Lower Trans Pecos Sunday, as core of large scale sinking motion
suppressing all convection is expected to be displaced a bit farther
west than models previously indicated. However, these shower/storm
chances are expected to remain very low (15%-20%) and dissipate
after sunset, with high probability of amounts only a few hundredths
to tenths of an inch where storms - if any - do occur. Despite
mostly clear skies Sunday night, renewed south/southeast winds,
breezy at times in the LLJ, result in lows only falling into the
lower 70s F along Rio Grande into eastern Stockton Plateau and
Permian Basin, mid to upper 60s F, and upper 50s F to lower 60s F
Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos and northern Lea County into
northwest Permian Basin.
Core of ridging and large scale subsidence will be overhead Monday,
with even warmer temperatures and near zero rain chances to mark the
first day of autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition to the
usual warm spots along the Rio Grande, triple digit readings are
indicated over Upper Trans Pecos and eastern into central Permian
Basin, including MAF. MAF may tie or break record of 100 F set in
1977. Highs elsewhere in mid to upper 90s F, upper 80s F to lower
90s F higher elevations will mean even higher elevations will not
offer much relief from the late season heat. Heat Risk Level of 3
during the day persist into the overnight hours with south/southwest
winds maintaining transport of warm air into the area. Lows Monday
night in lower to mid 70s F, mid to upper 60s F, and lower 60s F
higher elevations and northern Lea County are therefore expected.
Given the time of year, this level of warmth will not persist for
long, and a change to more seasonable temperatures and increased
rain chances is in store. Read the long term discussion for more
details.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Summer-like temperatures persist on Tuesday. This is thanks to the
upper-level ridge situated over portions of northern Mexico and
southwest Texas. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected across
the region due to the ridge weakening as an upper-level trough
swings across the central Rockies. Highs are forecast to be in the
upper 80s to mid 90s, besides a few locations along the Rio Grande
and Presidio river valleys spanning in the lower 100s. Shortwave
pulses within the flow of the weakening ridge allows for isolated to
scattered rain showers and storms to occur Tuesday afternoon into
early evening. Greatest precipitation chances (15-30%) lies over the
eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Davis Mountains.
Forecast soundings depict "inverted-V" profiles, along with modest
to high DCAPE values which signals a wind threat with the strongest
storms. Other hazards include brief heavy rainfall as PWATs range
near the 90th percentile, as well as frequent lightning. Flash
flooding is not expected to be a threat because of the dry airmass
at the surface where quite a bit of precipitation will evaporate before
reaching the ground.
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the aforementioned trough
ejects across the Central Plains sending a cold front to the region.
This will provide low to medium (20-50%) rain chances for most
locations through Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall amounts are
anticipated to remain low (0.01-0.25") across the area. A notable
temperature spread among ensemble guidance still exists, however,
cooler high temperatures are forecast to range in the mid 70s to mid
80s for areas along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor. Areas
south of this corridor are expected to be in the mid 80s to 90s,
besides locations over and near the higher terrain.
Through the latter half of the work week, seasonable temperatures
and dwindling rain chances (10-30%) are in store as the trough
ejects further eastward with subtle upper-level ridging moving into
the region. By this weekend, guidance shows another upper-low system
approaching from the west. Cluster analysis has different solutions
on the positioning and magnitude of this system which will determine
if next weekend will have cooler and rainier or warmer and drier
weather conditions across the region. Stay tuned!
Lamberson
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions with very low (

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion