Alta Vista, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

961
FXUS63 KTOP 071921
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
221 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain/storms return to the area Monday and into Tuesday morning (20-
60%).
- Temperatures warm through the week, getting back into the mid
  to upper 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Another beautiful afternoon is underway today as temperatures have
warmed into the mid 70s with light southeasterly winds and mostly
clear skies. Expect temperatures to top out in the upper 70s and
some low 80s by peak heating hours today. Tonight, a mid-level wave
embedded in northwesterly flow begins to advect into northeast
Kansas and helps to return rain and storms chances to the area. Rain
and storm chances will begin to increase around or just before
sunrise Monday morning across central Kansas as the first lobe of
mid-level energy moves in. Could see some embedded thunderstorms
during the morning hours across central KS as some elevated
instability and modest ML lapse rates will be present. Not expecting
any severe weather, but some storms that become taller could bring
some gusty winds and brief heavy rain. A lull in rain/storms should
be realized Monday afternoon for most as the best mid-level forcing
moves into south-central KS. PoPs begin to increase once again
Monday evening as more appreciable mid-level vorticity advects in
from Nebraska and lingers across the area through early Tuesday
morning.
Rain comes to an end Tuesday morning as the wave moves southeast of
the area. A few round of rain/storms could become possible (20-30%)
Wednesday/Thursday as the next lobe of vorticity advects across the
Plains, but the main topic of the week will be the increasing
afternoon temperatures. Beginning Tuesday, mid-level ridging builds
over the central US, helping temperatures return back into the mid
to upper 80s. Some cloud cover associated with precipitation and the
advancing upper trough over the western US could help to keep temps
from getting much warmer than 90 degrees. NBM 25th/75th temperature
spreads are only a few degrees apart indicating a fair amount of
confidence in the extended forecast staying in the upper 80s through
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR TAFs persist through the period at all sites as light
south/southeasterly winds and mostly clear skies remain common
this afternoon. Cloud cover begins to increase overnight tonight
with some rain chances, mainly across central KS. Opted to
include mention of precipitation at KMHK early Monday morning.
Winds will increase late in the period out of the south,
possibly gusting up to 20-25 mph at times.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion