Apalachicola, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

898
FXUS62 KTAE 031438
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1038 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New UPDATE, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
No major changes to today`s forecast were required. Late-morning
satellite and surface observations show light showers streaming in
off the Atlantic on the heels of brisk easterly flow. Some of this
activity gets into parts of the I-75 corridor and FL Big Bend
through the afternoon, but is not expected be impactful.
The main focus will be continued breezy conditions with multiple
locations already gusting to 20+ mph. Similar gusts should
continue frequently (especially near the coast) before slacking
off some after sunset. Beach visitors are encouraged to be mindful
of the color flags flying today as the risk for rip currents is
moderate to high.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
The main story today will be the gusty winds across the area. This
is due to a high situated over the Appalachians and an old stalled
boundary over south Florida. This will result in strong northeast
breezes with gusts around 20-30 mph. Otherwise, a slight uptick in
moisture from the east may help squeeze out a few isolated showers
this afternoon, but no significant impacts are expected from
these. Highs will reach the mid 80s with lows in the upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
The stalled front over south Florida will lift northward as a
shortwave pivots northward over the eastern Gulf and western
Atlantic. Along the front, an inverted trough or weak area of low
pressure may develop as it lifts northward. The National Hurricane
Center gives this low prospects (10% chance) of tropical
development. Regardless, its main impact will primarily come in
the enhancement of rain chances, particularly by Sunday. PWATs
will increase Saturday to around 1.5 to 1.7 inches, which will
support more clouds and a slightly better chance for showers and
maybe isolated thunder. Highs will be in the mid 80s with lows in
the upper 60s.
The front lifts northward through our area Sunday with PWATs
around 2 inches, which is near the 90th percentile for early
October. Thus, much better coverage of showers is anticipated with
a few thunderstorms mixed in. Given the tropical moisture in
place, some locally heavier downpours are possible, especially
over the eastern half of the area closer to the inverted trough or
weak area of low pressure. With more rain around, highs will be in
the lower 80s Sunday with lows in the muggy 70s.
Breezy winds will continue both Saturday and Sunday with the tight
pressure gradient remaining in place. Gusts of 20-30 mph are
expected each afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
The system gradually lifts northward out of our area early next
week with decreasing rain chances. Monday will still feature good
rain chances around 40-60% as the system exits our area. Large-
scale ridging starts to take hold by the middle of next week,
which will warm our temperatures back up into the mid to upper
80s and lows near 70. The next cold front will arrive late in the
week with potentially another shot of cooler and drier air.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions are expected for most areas through the period.
However, one exception may be VLD where easterly flow could bring
in some MVFR ceilings through this morning. Northeast winds will
become gusty again during the day on Friday with gusts around 20
knots expected areawide. Gusts will subside this evening a few
hours after sunset.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1024 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all local waters
excluding St Andrews Bay. Offshore buoys are reporting sustained
winds around 20 kts with higher gusts and seas nearing 7 ft late
this morning.
CWF Synopsis: A prolonged period of Small Craft Advisory
conditions will continue through the weekend. Strong easterly
winds will continue due to the tight pressure gradient from high
pressure to our north and a stalled front to our south. An
isolated gale-force gust cannot be ruled out Friday or Saturday
night. Seas will be around 5 to 8 feet through this weekend.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as the front
lifts northward over the weekend. Conditions improve next week as
the pressure gradient relaxes.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Strong east to northeast transport winds of 15-20 mph will continue
each day through the weekend, which will lead to good to high
dispersions each afternoon. A few isolated light showers are
possible this afternoon over the FL Big Bend, increasing in coverage
over the weekend. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this
weekend. The highest chance for a wetting rain comes Sunday with
about a 50/50 chance. Min RH values this afternoon will fall into
the low to mid 40s, rising through the weekend. The gusty winds
and drying fuels may lead to some elevated fire concerns over the
next couple days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Chances for showers and storms increase through the weekend. With
PWATs increasing to the 90th percentile over the weekend, some
locally heavy downpours may occur, especially Sunday and Monday.
Most likely rainfall totals are around 1 inch near the I-75
corridor and Suwannee River to 0.5 over the Central Time Zone
counties. However, the reasonable high-end totals (90th
percentile) are around 1.5-2.5 inches over the eastern Big Bend
and I-75 corridor. This shouldn`t cause widespread flood concerns
given the ongoing drought across the area. This rain would be more
beneficial than problematic.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  67  83  71 /  10   0  30  20
Panama City   86  69  84  71 /   0   0  30  30
Dothan        83  65  82  69 /   0   0  10  10
Albany        84  65  84  69 /   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      84  67  83  70 /  10   0  20  20
Cross City    87  68  84  71 /  20  10  30  30
Apalachicola  84  70  82  73 /  10  10  40  40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108.
High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for GMZ730-
     751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
&&
$$
UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Young/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion