Arapahoe, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

894
FXUS63 KGID 050534
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and windy conditions and elevated fire weather persists
  through early evening with southerly wind gusts 35-45 MPH.
- Cold front enters the area on Sunday, leading to decent range
  in temperatures (mid 70s NW to near 90 far SE) and chance for
  thunderstorms by late afternoon and early evening. There
  remains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for a few severe storms
  along the front between 5pm and 11pm.
- Shower and non-severe thunderstorm chances are forecast to
  increase and expand northward Sunday night into Monday.
  Stronger push of Canadian air and plentiful clouds will keep
  temps much cooler in the 50s to near 60 on Monday.
- Temperatures moderate back to 60s/70s by midweek, then even
  warmer into the 70s to lower 80s for the second half of the
  week with virtually no risk for frost or freeze anytime soon.
  Could see some hit and miss rain around midweek, but Monday
  looks like the best chance for moisture next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Upper level high pressure and deepening lee troughing has led to
strong southerly winds and well above normal temperatures across
much of the central Plains today. Highs today will top out in
the mid 80s to lower 90s...a solid 10-20 deg above normal for
early Oct. Wind gusts of 35-45 MPH have been widespread and
persistent and are even supporting some plumes of blowing dust
just off to the W/SW. Combination of hot temperatures and strong
winds are leading to some fire weather concerns, which are
discussed in greater detail below.
Srly flow will remain elevated overnight and lead to yet another
unseasonably mild night with lows mainly in the 60s. A lead
shortwave disturbance in the increasing SWrly upper flow may
force some weakening showers/weak elevated convection into W/NW
portions of the area after midnight. Most will remain dry, and
even areas that get wet will likely only get a few hundredths.
A cold front will move into NW portions of the area by mid to
late AM, and make continued slow, but steady, progress to the SE
throughout the day. The front should settle to around Columbus -
Hastings - Phillipsburg line by late afternoon...with 80s to
near 90F for highs to the SE, and cooler 70s behind it. The
front should make some additional progress to the SE before
iso-scat showers/storms develop around 23-00Z. SPC has
maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe with this
activity given combination of modest instability (500-1000 J/kg)
and 30-40kt of deep layer shear - rapidly incr to 50 kt just
behind the front. However, lapse rates are rather poor and a
significant portion of the deep layer shear vector is parallel
to the front itself. So would expect limited cellular activity
and more upscale growth into a broken line that will also have
to contend with the front undercutting updrafts. Quarter size
hail and 60 MPH wind gusts are main threats.
Expect convection to increase in coverage and expand northward
Sun night into Mon AM as 850-700mb warm air advection lifts some
moisture back up and over the frontal slope. EC seems to be most
aggressive with this expansion as it gives most of our Neb zones
a tenth to half inch of rain - and this even has support from
it`s own ensemble. Some other guidance, however, is quite a bit
drier. Regardless of the rain, significant cloud cover and
northerly flow will keep it much cooler in the 50s to maybe low
60s Monday afternoon. A far cry from where we are today!
Rain chances generally diminish Monday night into Tuesday and
should see more sunshine on Tuesday, as well. This will allow
temps to moderate back into the 60s/70s midweek before 70s and
80s return once again for the second half of the week. After
Monday, the rest of the week looks fairly dry. One exception
could be some scattered warm air advection driven showers/storms
over parts of the area late Tuesday into Wednesday AM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
A few showers will be in the vicinity until 9-10z this morning.
An isolated thunderstorm can`t be completely ruled out, though
chances are not likely (

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion