Archibald, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

881
FXUS64 KJAN 251745
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1245 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and a few thunderstorms remain possible into this
   evening for parts of the forecast area, but no severe
   thunderstorms are expected.
- Dry weather is anticipated this weekend in the wake of the
   departing system.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The upper-level weather pattern to end this work week will feature a
closed low pressure system cutting off near the Baja Peninsula, a
low closing off from a positively tilted trough over the Southeast
U.S., and shortwave ridging over the central CONUS between these
features. The trough axis currently over our region should translate
east by Saturday. Until then, northerly flow will keep scattered
clouds around the CWA and the chance for at least some sprinkles or
showers for parts of the CWA. Trending drier by tomorrow afternoon
though.
The pattern at least gets a little more interesting into the middle
of next week, though. The Southwest low will become absorbed in a
deepening trough off the West Coast, and the central CONUS ridge
will amplify in response. Models generally agree that the
Southeastern U.S. low will cut off and spin over the southern
Appalachians. A tropical disturbance with a High (90%) chance of
development in the next few days will be steered northwest toward
this broad low pressure system  by early to mid next week. Any
impacts won`t be felt across our forecast area, but the pattern
should lock in the low pressure to our east through the end of this
7-day forecast. It appears more likely that we will be under the
influence of drier flow, but some wrap around moisture producing
rain by Wednesday or Thursday cannot entirely be ruled out. Pattern
will generally keep temps near normal late September and early
October. /NF/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions largely prevail with scattered clouds. A few rain
showers are possible this afternoon. Winds will be variable as
they wrap around a low pressure system but will shift from the
northwest by tomorrow with the system`s departure. Low stratus
will persist in the east tomorrow morning with MVFR ceilings
through around 9-10AM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  84  60  85 /  10   0   0   0
Meridian      64  85  61  86 /  10  10   0   0
Vicksburg     64  84  59  85 /  10   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   67  88  63  89 /  20   0   0   0
Natchez       64  83  59  86 /  10   0   0   0
Greenville    62  84  57  85 /  10   0   0   0
Greenwood     62  85  57  86 /  10   0   0   0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
NF/NF/SAS20

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion