Bailey Switch, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

581
FXUS63 KJKL 281959
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
359 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather is expected through most of the next week.
- Moisture moving onshore from the Atlantic on the north side of
  Tropical System Imelda could bring a few showers into southeast
  Kentucky on Tuesday.
- Confidence remains high that the impacts from the tropical
  system will be minimal across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 359 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025
An upper level high centered near Illinois will be our primary
influence through the short term period, keeping us dry. At the
surface, high pressure will be positioned to our north while a
pair of tropical systems begin a brief fujiwhara dance off the
southeast coast. The low level flow between the high and the lows
will provide us with trajectories generally the northeast to east,
which will not permit any significant low level moisture
advection. However, the deeper layer flow aloft will begin to
bring Atlantic moisture westward on the north side of the tropical
systems. This may allow for an increase in clouds late Monday and
Monday night, especially over the eastern part of the forecast
area.
Decent radiating conditions (the best being tonight) will continue
to allow for cool night time/early morning temperatures, along
with some valley fog. Abundant sunshine will give a strong
warm-up for the day Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025
The main theme for much of the extended is strengthening upper and
surface ridging into the Ohio valley and Appalachians keeping
conditions dry and temperatures pleasant. Main effects from the
tropical system across the Bahamas into the Atlantic ocean will
remain east of the spine of the Appalachians with the exception of a
few showers Tuesday.
For Tuesday, a shear axis and associated deformation zone will move
into the central and southern Appalachians. Enough moisture and
instability is available to produce isolated to widely scattered
showers mainly for areas near the KY/VA state-line. Instability is
limited with ensemble mean CAPES less than 500. Can not rule out
thunder but confidence is low.
For Wednesday through next weekend, good agreement between ensemble
analysis and latest deterministic models in depicting upper and
surface ridging into the Ohio valley and Appalachians. End result
will be pleasant and dry conditions. As mentioned by previous
forecaster, the pattern will support a ridge/valley temperature
split with some mid to upper 40s particularly for valleys and 50s
for areas of more open terrain and ridges.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025
Valley fog will develop again tonight and then dissipate on Monday
morning, bringing localized VLIFR conditions, especially in
southeast KY. It may affect KLOZ and KSME around sunrise.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period, with
winds less than 10 kts.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...HAL

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion