Barco, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

820
FXUS61 KAKQ 061053
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
653 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A stronger cold front crosses the area late tonight into
Sunday, with scattered showers and storms possible. Cool high
pressure builds north of the area Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Warm and slightly humid with highs in the low 90s
- A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
  into tonight. A few storms may be strong to severe.
Sfc high pressure still lingers offshore and over the local area as
the next cold front set to impact the region approaches from the
west. As of latest analysis this front was located over West
Virginia, a convective line evident on radar along with it. Aloft, A
broad trough that stretches from Montana to New England has its axis
cutting through the upper Midwest and the Great Plains, which places
the local area under SW flow. The Mid-Atlantic will face one last
summer-like day (for the foreseeable future anyway) ahead of the
front. Highs will be in the low 90s for most and dewpoints remain in
the upper 60s/around 70.
Ahead of the cold front passage, expect cloud cover to gradually
increase from W to E through the day. Showers and thunderstorms
associated with the front are expected to move into central VA,
Northern Neck, and Dorchester by mid to late afternoon. Guidance
suggests that precip may be slow to progress SE. SPC has maintained
the Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for much of the area,
excluding SE VA, NE NC, and the Atlantic side of the Eastern Shore.
The sfc front and UL trough will provide sufficient forcing and
MUCAPE values should climb to 1500-1800 J/KG based on the 00z HREF.
Effective shear does look like it may be on the lower side, but
should still see 25-30kt. Given these factors, stronger storms will
be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and perhaps even some
hail. Storms will be racing the sun, though, since instability
should drop off rather quickly after sunset. These storms will be
capable of heavy rain, as well. Most places should stay under 0.5"
of accumulation, but northern portions of the area could see upwards
of an inch. WPC has placed these areas in a Marginal risk of
Excessive Rainfall. Showers will persist overnight, albeit with less
coverage, and will slowly shift SE through Sunday morning. Overnight
lows will be in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Autumnal weather returns to the region on Sunday, with highs
  in the mid 70s and drier air moving back in.
The cold front should move offshore Sunday morning, a coastal trough
forming as it gets hung up. This feature may lead to the
continuation of scattered showers in the SE through the day Sunday.
Behind the front, strong high pressure builds into the area and
ushers in the return of fall weather. Sunday will likely be the
coolest day with lingering overcast skies and highs barely making it
out of the 60s for most of the area. Meanwhile, the far SE will be a
bit warmer with highs in the mid 70s. Skies gradually clear out
Sunday night from NW to SE. Lows in the NW will be in the low 50s
while the lows in the SE will be in the mid 60s thanks to the
persistent cloud cover. Drying out further on Monday as that coastal
trough slides E. However, cloud cover will remain near the coast.
Highs will be in the mid 70s. Lows Monday night range from the upper
40s in the far NW to the mid 60s in the far SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler weather sticks around early next week.
Heading into the mid-week period, high pressure slides by to the N
and into New England while the strengthening coastal trough
retrogrades back toward the coastline, setting up a CAD situation.
This means mostly cloudy to overcast skies, gusty onshore winds, and
chances for light rain in the east. Highs on Tues and Wed will be in
the mid 70s. Lows Tues night and Wed night will range from the mid
50s in the NW to the mid 60s at the coast. The coastal trough should
finally move away from the coast Thurs, leading to pleasant
conditions with highs in the upper 70s-low 80s. A dry cold front
then swoops in going into the end of the week. Forecast highs for
Friday are in the upper 70s/around 80.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Saturday...
VFR prevails across the TAF sites to start the 12z TAF period.
Expecting a FEW-SCT higher level cloud deck through the morning
hours. An approaching cold front will lead to
thickening/lowering cloud cover this afternoon. Also, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and into
the overnight hours. Confidence in impacts to terminals within
the period is highest at RIC and SBY. Any impact from precip to
the SE terminals would likely be after 06z. Storms at RIC/SBY
will be capable of heavy rain and gusty winds. Guidance suggests
that CIGs drop to MVFR between 23-06z from NW to SE. Further
Degradation to IFR is expected between 06-12z. Southerly winds
expected through the afternoon, then becoming northerly behind
the front this evening- overnight.
Outlook: Scattered showers and storms linger through Sat night,
tapering off from NW to SE Sun morning as a cold front moves
through the region. Winds shift to N behind the front Sat night
with MVFR/IFR CIGs developing along with patchy fog. MVFR/IFR
CIGs linger into Sun.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 430 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Sub-SCA conditions today into tonight. Northerly surge of
  winds to bring SCA conditions to at least the Bay Sunday.
- A more prolonged period of Small Craft Advisory conditions is
  expected Monday-Wednesday for the lower Bay/lower James,
  coastal waters, and Currituck sound as strong high pressure
  becomes centered NE of the region, with a trough offshore.
S/SW winds become S/SE later today ahead of an approaching cold
front. Seas will avg 2-3 ft, with waves 1-2 ft in the Bay and
rivers. Localized stronger wind gusts are possible late this
aftn, and especially this evening in scattered showers and
storms (this will be handled with SMWs and MWS products as
needed). Otherwise, winds for most of tonight will average
around 10 kt, shifting to the W-NW overnight.
The cold front is expected to drop south through the area
early Sunday morning, bringing a northerly surge of stronger winds,
probably followed by a bit of a lull Sunday afternoon/evening
as the pressure gradient weakens due to sfc high pressure
becoming centered over the region (despite clouds and lingering
showers). Given that this is mostly a 3rd period timeframe,
decided to hold off on SCA headlines for now- the next shift
will likely need a headline for at least the Bay on Sunday.
Later Sunday night into early Monday, much drier and cooler air
is expected to advect over the waters helping create a more
prolonged period with strong N/NE winds, initially across the
lower Bay/lower James, the ocean S of Parramore, and the sound.
By Monday night into Tuesday, the sfc high is forecast to build
east to New England (at 1030mb+), while a trough of low
pressure is expected to deepen off the SE coast, actually
retrograding a bit to the NW, tightening the pressure gradient.
This should be enough to lead to SCAs for most of the remainder
of the marine area, with strong SCAs (or even low-end Gales not
out of the question for the lower Bay and southern coastal
waters given this setup that tends to over-perform compared to
the models). Seas are expected to build to 6-8 ft by Tuesday,
and this could be underdone based on climatology. Would not be
surprised if a high Surf Advisory needs to be issued for VA
Beach and the northern NC Outer Banks by late Monday-Tuesday. A
slow improvement is expected Wednesday, but SCAs are very likely
to continue into Wednesday night for the coastal waters.
The rip current threat is low today, but becomes moderate south
Sunday, and high south, moderate north by Monday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 500 AM EDT Saturday...
Tidal anomalies underperformed early this morning, likely
influenced by ebb current dominance at the mouth of the Bay over
the past 24 hrs, lowering water levels over the entire Bay by
about 0.5 ft. No tidal flooding is expected through the weekend,
but water levels will increase Monday, with at least minor
flooding looking probable by Tuesday- Wednesday next week given
a prolonged period of onshore flow and high seas offshore. This
pattern would primarily favor the lower Bay/lower James/York
River, and SE VA/NE NC zones along the Ocean, with less of a
flood threat farther north up the Bay and Ocean.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AC/MAM
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...HET/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion