Baytown, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

525
FXUS64 KHGX 240508
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1208 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- A cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms on
  Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall (isolated totals of 3-5")
  could create localized flooding issues if the heavy rains occur
  over vulnerable locations. A marginal risk for excessive rain
  (threat level 1 of 4) is in place across the area.
- In addition to the marginal heavy rain threat, a few of the
  day`s storms may become strong to severe. If any of today`s
  storms do manage to become strong to severe, damaging winds will
  be the primary severe threat. As with the heavy rain threat,
  there is a marginal risk for severe storms (threat level 1 of 5)
  across the area as well.
- Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures prevail into the end
  of the week behind the front. Though cooler, temperatures look
  to remain near to slightly above average.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
If rain and storms are your thing, it`s really the next 48ish
hours that are going to hold your attention. A front making its
way through will give us plenty of opportunity for storms for much
of the area. After that, we`ll find ourselves in a multi- day
stretch of generally fair weather and temperatures that are near
to slightly above average. It won`t be fall, this cold front isn`t
that strong, but it`ll be that in-between zone where it`s not as
hot and humid as summer, but it doesn`t really feel like fall even
a little bit. So, you know, the usual for early autumn around
here.
Dialing into the short term forecast a little more, scattered to
numerous showers and storms seems pretty much a slam dunk. HREF
has pretty widespread probabilities greater than 50 percent for 2
inch precipitable water values, and we`ve got not only the usual
seabreeze boundary to fire convection off of (like on Tuesday) but
also an incoming cold front. It will be interesting to see what
remains of the existing line of rain and storms along the front
farther upstream by the time it (maybe?) reaches our area. Earlier
this evening, I would have thought we might have on okay line of
storms to provide some morning rain up around Houston and Madison
counties. But this line does not look healthy at all, and with not
much temperature difference across the front, I`m starting to see
why the HRRR is now a bit slower with the front arriving in our
area, holding it off a little later in the morning.
This creates some uncertainty in how strong storms will be in the
northern part of our area as the arrive. There had been a pretty
good consensus that we`d see more significant convective activity
on the front coming in, then it would wane a bit later in the
morning creating a bit of a lull as it approached the Houston
metro, then once we got to the afternoon with peak heating, and
the front and the seabreeze all mixing together, convection will
pick back up again. Broadly speaking, this all seems like a good
thumbnail sketch, but I think the current state of storms to our
north, and a potentially slower front creates a good bit of
downward uncertainty for our far north. If the storms are dead and
the front isn`t pushing, activity may not be as robust and we may
not see more vigorous storms until the afternoon closer to the
coast.
Now, wherever we may get these storms, there is some threat for
both heavy rain and severe weather. Both get marginal risks from
their respective national centers across the area, and this seems
pretty reasonable. CAPE should be ample for stronger storms as
it`s still quite hot and humid out there and the upper trough will
help cool the upper levels and boost potential instability some
more. And, with PWATs around/above 2 inches, we`ll also have
plenty of moisture. However, we do have factors limiting the
threat, and why hitting the lower end of the risk scale is more
appropriate. One of those mitigating factors is shear. It both
looks not terribly impressive, and its angle relative to the front
also does not look super favorable, limiting just how organized
and long-lasting storm updrafts will be. So, while most all of our
storms in the short term can be expected to be somewhat gusty, it
can be difficult to get storms capable of generating severe winds.
It`s plausible we get it in a couple isolated spots, but I`m not
expecting much more than that unless the shear vector is more
front-normal and stronger than anticipated.
On the rain side of things, we`ve got storm motion to deal with.
For most of our area, it looks like these storms should be
trucking along at a 10-20 mph clip, perhaps even a bit faster. So,
while storms can produce some heavy rain, as long as they keep the
movement up, that will spread it out over some distance. Where
more of a concern might turn up is when things get more cranked
up closer to the coast in the afternoon. This is where colliding
boundaries may muck up storm motions, and perhaps we do get one or
two storms moving very slowly, and potentially over a more
urbanized area, as this is likely to take place at a metro-ish
distance from the coast. Even here though, HREF probabilities for
2 inch per hour rainfall rates are a spotty, weak signal at most,
and virtually no indication of 3 inch per hour rain rates. For
most, this shouldn`t be a particularly concerning threat, albeit
with some briefly heavy rain. However, if the wrong storm happens
over the wrong, flood-prone spot, we could see a low-end flooding
threat emerge. And with storms expected to be more numerous, we`re
getting more opportunities for those things to line up.
Beyond that, the main story is how, well, average things are
likely to be. The front will usher in some modestly cooler, drier
air. This should be most helpful at night, as the lower humidity
allows for a lower temperature floor. But, we should get a little
help during the afternoons. Not a ton, but at least something
closer to or slightly above average, rather than the full-out
summer conditions we`ve had of late. There are a whole lot of
white chiclets on the ensemble situational awareness tables for
both the NAEFS and EPS once this front clears through. The next
thing that shows up there is for upper level heights/temps to
drift up to around the 90th percentile towards the middle of next
week. Fortunately, this does not translate down to the lower
levels, and this is technically beyond my forecast period. So,
while there are some hints of a return of warmer weather out that
way, we`ve got plenty of time to wait and see how things develop
on that front.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Isolated showers continue with minimal impacts to terminals
expected. VFR conditions expected overnight. MVFR CIGs develop
after 10z ahead of an approaching front. VCSH in the AM for GLS as
showers develop along the coast. As front approaches, a band of
SHRA/TSRA will develop ahead of it. Timing remains unchanged, with
15-20z at CLL/UTS, 19-23z for Houston area terminals, and 21-02z
for GLS. VSBYs may drop to 1-2 SM and gusts to 30-40 kts will be
possible in strongest storms. Activity will taper off from NW to
SE through evening hours.
Adams
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
South to southeast winds along with scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. On Wednesday, winds
will shift out of the southwest ahead of an approaching cold
front. The front will also bring more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity on Wednesday into Thursday morning. A few
stronger thunderstorms capable of gusty winds are possible. Winds
become more northerly in the front`s wake on Thursday and Friday.
Winds are expected to be moderate to strong at times, and small
craft will likely need to exercise caution late in the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  89  69  87 /  10  70  40  20
Houston (IAH)  78  94  73  87 /  20  70  80  40
Galveston (GLS)  82  89  75  84 /  10  60  90  70
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion