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Benchland, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

585
FXUS65 KTFX 221307
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 707 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few lingering light rain showers this morning along with cooler temperatures. - Turning warmer and mostly quiet beyond Monday with little chance for rain through the weekend.&&

.DISCUSSION...

With upper level troughing overhead today, expect a cool day today with a few leftover rain showers, particularly in the morning hours today. While today will be cool and slightly unsettled, the rest of the week will generally be the opposite as upper level riding quickly builds into the area beginning on Tuesday, which will bring a quick rebound in temperatures along with very little chance for rainfall and generally light winds. Upper level ridging will generally linger across the Western US through the remainder of the week, with the pattern only possibly breaking early next week as a large upper level trough begins to move towards the West Coast.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Confidence in the forecast late this week has increased quite a bit in the past 24 to 48 hours, as the potential trough for the weekend has largely evaporated from the ensembles. This has allowed for more confidence in the NBM forecast for the weekend, which is warm and dry. Ludwig

&&

.UPDATE...

A small morning update was posted, mainly to account for latest trends with respect to both fog and lingering rain. Fog diminishes through the morning, while a few showers near terrain linger into the afternoon hours. Thereafter ridging firmly takes hold, leading to a dry and mild period through much of the week. -AM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /Issued 551 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025/

With upper level troughing overhead today, expect a cool day today with a few leftover rain showers, particularly in the morning hours today. While today will be cool and slightly unsettled, the rest of the week will generally be the opposite as upper level riding quickly builds into the area beginning on Tuesday, which will bring a quick rebound in temperatures along with very little chance for rainfall and generally light winds. Upper level ridging will generally linger across the Western US through the remainder of the week, with the pattern only possibly breaking early next week as a large upper level trough begins to move towards the West Coast.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Confidence in the forecast late this week has increased quite a bit in the past 24 to 48 hours, as the potential trough for the weekend has largely evaporated from the ensembles. This has allowed for more confidence in the NBM forecast for the weekend, which is warm and dry. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION... 22/12Z TAF Period

Aside from some early morning light rain showers and low clouds around KBZN, KLWT, and KWYS, through 14z or so, expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will remain breezy at KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT today with gusts to 20-25 kts, but otherwise expect light winds. Ludwig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 67 42 78 47 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 67 38 79 43 / 40 0 0 0 HLN 67 41 76 46 / 20 0 0 0 BZN 62 36 73 40 / 50 0 0 0 WYS 55 25 67 28 / 70 0 0 0 DLN 61 35 72 38 / 40 0 0 0 HVR 69 40 77 44 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 60 40 74 45 / 20 0 0 0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&

$$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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