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Benchland, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

570
FXUS65 KTFX 221934
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 134 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a few isolated afternoon terrain based showers, the remainder of the week is looking dry.

- Temperatures trend warmer for Tuesday, with Wednesday and Thursday being the hottest days of the week.

- A bit breezier toward the end of the week on the plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

- Meteorological Overview:

The back side of upper level troughing that brought precipitation to the region over the past 24 hours or so is beginning to exit the region eastward this afternoon. Lingering cool temperatures aloft combined with daytime heating has resulted in sufficiently steep lapse rates for a few terrain based showers so far this afternoon across portions of Central and Southwest Montana. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out the remainder of the afternoon before convective activity winds down this evening.

As the troughing exits eastward, upper level ridging will quickly build in, promoting clearing skies. A few instances of patchy fog cannot be ruled out Tuesday morning, especially in areas that have seen more than just a few sprinkles over the past 24 hours or so. Also of note is that many locations across Southwest Montana will see their coldest mornings of the season so far.

Otherwise the main story with the building ridge will be for temperatures rising back above average, hottest Wednesday and Thursday. A breezier period does look to develop later in the week as the ridge is somewhat suppressed by troughing the makes glancing blows off to the north in Canada. This also looks to bring temperatures back down a bit Friday into the weekend, though still a bit above average for this time of the year.

Ensemble guidance largely favors the drier/milder pattern persisting this weekend into early next week. A subset (Roughly 35% or so) of ensemble guidance does begin to bring some form of troughing in by early next week, though timing and strength of any troughing is highly uncertain. -AM

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

The greatest uncertainty through the remainder of the work week is related to strength of winds over the plains Thursday into Friday. As it stands, the chance for a 40 mph gust in Cut Bank and Browning areas is roughly 40% Thursday night into Friday. Elsewhere over the plains the chance for the same gust is up to 30% over the same timeframe. -AM

&&

.AVIATION... 22/18Z TAF Period

Low to mid-level clouds will stick around across much of the region through the early afternoon before moving out to the east, giving way for a few high clouds through the overnight hours into tomorrow. There may be some lingering gusts up to 25kts at KLWT and KHVR through the afternoon hours but otherwise expect generally light winds out of the northwest to continue through the rest of the day before becoming light and variable overnight.

There is a chance for localized fog to develop tonight across the valleys of southwest Montana. As of now, confidence was not high enough to include it in the TAF but this will be something to watch as the night progresses and cloud cover diminishes in the late evening hours. -thor

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 42 78 47 87 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 38 78 44 84 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 41 75 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 36 71 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 25 66 27 71 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 34 70 38 78 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 39 77 44 86 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 39 74 45 84 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&

$$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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