Benchland, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

585
FXUS65 KTFX 221307
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
707 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few lingering light rain showers this morning along with
   cooler temperatures.
 - Turning warmer and mostly quiet beyond Monday with little
   chance for rain through the weekend.&&
.DISCUSSION...
With upper level troughing overhead today, expect a cool day
today with a few leftover rain showers, particularly in the
morning hours today. While today will be cool and slightly
unsettled, the rest of the week will generally be the opposite as
upper level riding quickly builds into the area beginning on
Tuesday, which will bring a quick rebound in temperatures along
with very little chance for rainfall and generally light winds.
Upper level ridging will generally linger across the Western US
through the remainder of the week, with the pattern only possibly
breaking early next week as a large upper level trough begins to
move towards the West Coast.
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Confidence in the forecast late this week has increased quite a
bit in the past 24 to 48 hours, as the potential trough for the
weekend has largely evaporated from the ensembles. This has
allowed for more confidence in the NBM forecast for the weekend,
which is warm and dry. Ludwig
&&
.UPDATE...
A small morning update was posted, mainly to account for latest
trends with respect to both fog and lingering rain. Fog diminishes
through the morning, while a few showers near terrain linger into
the afternoon hours. Thereafter ridging firmly takes hold,
leading to a dry and mild period through much of the week. -AM
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 551 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025/
With upper level troughing overhead today, expect a cool day
today with a few leftover rain showers, particularly in the
morning hours today. While today will be cool and slightly
unsettled, the rest of the week will generally be the opposite as
upper level riding quickly builds into the area beginning on
Tuesday, which will bring a quick rebound in temperatures along
with very little chance for rainfall and generally light winds.
Upper level ridging will generally linger across the Western US
through the remainder of the week, with the pattern only possibly
breaking early next week as a large upper level trough begins to
move towards the West Coast.
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Confidence in the forecast late this week has increased quite a
bit in the past 24 to 48 hours, as the potential trough for the
weekend has largely evaporated from the ensembles. This has
allowed for more confidence in the NBM forecast for the weekend,
which is warm and dry. Ludwig
&&
.AVIATION...
22/12Z TAF Period
Aside from some early morning light rain showers and low clouds
around KBZN, KLWT, and KWYS, through 14z or so, expect VFR
conditions through the TAF period. Winds will remain breezy at
KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT today with gusts to 20-25 kts, but otherwise
expect light winds. Ludwig
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  67  42  78  47 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  67  38  79  43 /  40   0   0   0
HLN  67  41  76  46 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  62  36  73  40 /  50   0   0   0
WYS  55  25  67  28 /  70   0   0   0
DLN  61  35  72  38 /  40   0   0   0
HVR  69  40  77  44 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  60  40  74  45 /  20   0   0   0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion