Benchland, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

570
FXUS65 KTFX 221934
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
134 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After a few isolated afternoon terrain based showers, the
   remainder of the week is looking dry.
- Temperatures trend warmer for Tuesday, with Wednesday and
   Thursday being the hottest days of the week.
- A bit breezier toward the end of the week on the plains.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
- Meteorological Overview:
The back side of upper level troughing that brought precipitation to
the region over the past 24 hours or so is beginning to exit the
region eastward this afternoon. Lingering cool temperatures aloft
combined with daytime heating has resulted in sufficiently steep
lapse rates for a few terrain based showers so far this afternoon
across portions of Central and Southwest Montana. A few rumbles of
thunder cannot be ruled out the remainder of the afternoon before
convective activity winds down this evening.
As the troughing exits eastward, upper level ridging will quickly
build in, promoting clearing skies. A few instances of patchy fog
cannot be ruled out Tuesday morning, especially in areas that have
seen more than just a few sprinkles over the past 24 hours or so.
Also of note is that many locations across Southwest Montana will
see their coldest mornings of the season so far.
Otherwise the main story with the building ridge will be for
temperatures rising back above average, hottest Wednesday and
Thursday. A breezier period does look to develop later in the
week as the ridge is somewhat suppressed by troughing the makes
glancing blows off to the north in Canada. This also looks to
bring temperatures back down a bit Friday into the weekend, though
still a bit above average for this time of the year.
Ensemble guidance largely favors the drier/milder pattern persisting
this weekend into early next week. A subset (Roughly 35% or so) of
ensemble guidance does begin to bring some form of troughing in by
early next week, though timing and strength of any troughing is
highly uncertain. -AM
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
The greatest uncertainty through the remainder of the work week is
related to strength of winds over the plains Thursday into Friday.
As it stands, the chance for a 40 mph gust in Cut Bank and Browning
areas is roughly 40% Thursday night into Friday. Elsewhere over the
plains the chance for the same gust is up to 30% over the same
timeframe. -AM
&&
.AVIATION...
22/18Z TAF Period
Low to mid-level clouds will stick around across much of the
region through the early afternoon before moving out to the east,
giving way for a few high clouds through the overnight hours into
tomorrow. There may be some lingering gusts up to 25kts at KLWT
and KHVR through the afternoon hours but otherwise expect
generally light winds out of the northwest to continue through the
rest of the day before becoming light and variable overnight.
There is a chance for localized fog to develop tonight across the
valleys of southwest Montana. As of now, confidence was not high
enough to include it in the TAF but this will be something to
watch as the night progresses and cloud cover diminishes in the
late evening hours.   -thor
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  78  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  38  78  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  75  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  36  71  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  25  66  27  71 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  34  70  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  39  77  44  86 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  39  74  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion