Big Torch Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

953
FXUS62 KKEY 191743
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
143 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION, PREV MARINE, DISCUSSION, FORECAST...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Although a passing shower cannot be ruled out, VFR conditions will
prevail in the vicinity of both terminals through 18z Saturday
afternoon. Near-surface winds will remain out of the north to
northeast at 6 to 9 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, as drier air continues to
push across the Keys this afternoon and high pressure builds
across the Eastern Seaboard, drier conditions, coupled with light
to gentle northeast to east breezes, are expected for Friday
through the weekend.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
After several days of wet and thundery weather, drier conditions
have finally made a return to the Florida Keys. GOES visible
satellite imagery is depicting partly cloudy skies across the
Island Chain, with only isolated showers being detected in the
distant Straits of Florida. Surface analysis places a
quasistationary front attached to an area of low pressure off of
Nova Scotia now trekking eastward, with a modified continental
airmass overshadowing the Florida Peninsula owed to high pressure
parked over the Carolinas.
For the rest of today, rain chances appear much lower than the
past several days. This is stemming from much weaker steering
flow, coupled with a much drier tropospheric profile sampled in
this morning`s 12z sounding at KEY. The best chances for
measurable rainfall appear to be from any possible cumulus cloud
line that may form along portions of the Lower and Middle Keys, as
well as any convection over South Florida nudging southwestward.
The inherited forecast calls for low-end chance level PoPs (around
30%), and given this reasoning, this seems on track. No changes
proposed for this late morning update cycle.
&&
.FORECAST...
Issued at 507 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Rain chances have decreased back to near normal for this time of
year, as high pressure builds in across the Eastern Seaboard
resulting in our more typical light to gentle easterly breezes.
Showers are still at a chance but are not expected to be plentiful
like we just experienced. This weekend should be a mostly
pleasant with highs in the upper 80s, lows in the upper 70s, and
light north to northeast winds. In the extended, PoPs have
increased slightly to account for moisture slightly returning to
the area but significant impacts are not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  89  79  90  79 /  30  30  30  30
Marathon  88  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  30
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....BT
Data Acquisition.....BT
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion