Bigelow, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

432
FXUS63 KEAX 211731
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1231 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* This morning dense fog is expected through 9AM for areas north
  of the Missouri River...visibilities may be reduced to a 1/4
  mile or less.
* Unsettled weather pattern leads to multiple chances of
  precipitation through Thursday. A few strong storms with
  gusty winds and hail is possible today for areas south of
  Highway 36.
* Strong storms will be possible again overnight Monday into
  Tuesday morning with gusty winds being the main threat.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Early this morning, dense fog development is becoming evident
on nighttime microphysics satellite imagery. Models suggest that
dense fog will persist for areas north of the Missouri River
through 9AM. Also, early this morning a surface boundary exists
across southern Kansas. A southwesterly LLJ is overriding this
boundary and nosing into central Kansas where convection is
blossoming with further enhancement from a weak mid-level
shortwave. Storms across Kansas are expected to develop into a
cluster and move into the local area this morning as the focus
of the LLJ shifts eastward into eastern Kansas and western
Missouri. These storms will weaken during the late morning hours
as the LLJ weakens however, hi-res models suggest a remnant MCV
may reside across the west central CWA which may become the
focus for redevelopment his afternoon. Out ahead of this feature
MUCAPE values will be between 1500-2000J/Kg however, shear will
be weak (although it may be enhanced by the MCV). With that
moderate instability in place as scattered thunderstorms develop
this afternoon, it is possible that some strong storms develop
which would be capable of gusty winds and brief marginally
severe hail for areas south of Highway 36. Storms main linger
into tonight across the southern CWA as a weak upper level
shortwave moves through the region and the LLJ restrengthens and
focuses across southern Missouri. Highs today will be in the
mid 70s to lower 80s. Monday looks to be mainly dry although
another mid-level shortwave is expected to pass just south of
the area which could produce a few showers or isolated storms
across the southern CWA. Highs Monday will be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. Monday into Monday night a seasonably strong upper
level trough will dig from the northern Rockies into the
central Rockies. A lead shortwave is expected to eject out ahead
of the trough and force a cold front into the area late Monday
night into Tuesday morning. This will bring another round of
storms which has the potential to be strong although, better
instability will reside south of the area. However 1000-
1500J/Kg will be sufficient for a few storms capable of gusty
winds. Shower and thunderstorm chance will continue Tuesday as
the aforementioned cold front sags through the area as
additional weak lead shortwave move through the forecast area.
The beginning of the extended forecast on Wednesday and Thursday
continue to look active as the aforementioned upper level trough
with a closed low slowly moves across Kansas Tuesday night into
Wednesday before it stalls over the area Wednesday night through
Thursday night. This will continue shower and isolated thunderstorm
chances both days. Friday, the pattern changes as an omega blocking
pattern looks to set up with a closed upper low over the Tennessee
River Valley and another over California. In between upper level
ridging will develop over the eastern Rockies. This pattern will
persist into next weekend with subtle height rises over the area
each day. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will unsettled weather and
cloudy conditions will hold highs in the low to mid 70s. As
conditions dry out Friday through Sunday, the subtle height rises
will support a modest warming trend with highs in the mid 70s Friday
rising into the upper 70 to lower 80s by next Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Thicker cloud cover is moving over northeastern KS and west-
central to northwestern MO, associated with decaying convection
over KS. This should limit the potential for the development of
instability and convection to mainly south I-70 through eastern
KS and western MO. So have replaced -TSRA with -SHRA for all
sites, except IXD. Otherwise, timing of activity still looks
most likely from late this afternoon through early this evening.
Overnight, low clouds are beginning to look more likely. Have
added some MVFR bases with a scattered IFR deck to show that
possibility. HREF shows between a 40% and 50% chance of ceilings
less than 1000 ft by 11Z with probabilities decreasing 16Z and
later.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion