Biggs Field, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

482
FXUS64 KEPZ 142307
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
507 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 500 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
- Drier weather today and Monday with typical mid-September
   temperatures. Isolated showers/thunderstorms both days.
- Higher moisture returns Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered
   afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
- Some moisture persisting, leading to isolated
   showers/thunderstorms, mainly over the mountains.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Main upper low now over NE Colorado, which dragged trough/our
active weather late Saturday night. Layered moisture plume now
well to our east as drier air filters in from the northwest in the
wake of the trough passage. PWs by this afternoon will be under
one inch everywhere, and as low as .40 inches across the northern
CWA. Thus, not expecting much action this afternoon/evening. Areas
of the Mexican Chihuahuan Desert remain unstable with enough
moisture for some thunderstorms. With our west/southwest flow
aloft, a few of these could move into the far southern fringes of
our CWA (along the Intl Border). We did have some patchy fog this
morning but can`t see overnight again tonight, unless some areas
end up with unexpected heavy rain tonight.
Monday through Wednesday...upper high just south of Arizona/New
Mexico will slowly slide east toward the Big Bend Monday, turning
mid-level flow back to the south and beginning to advect some
moisture in. Upper high elongates on a northwest-southeast axis.
With airmass remaining modestly unstable, expect isolated
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. PWs increase to a bit
above normal (120%), so some storms could produce heavy rainfall,
but flood potential should remain low.
Thursday through Sunday...strong polar trough digging down from
the northern Rockies to the southern plains will re-orient the
upper ridge over us with a north-south axis. Some drier air likely
to filter down in the north/northwest flow, but the models
continue to show recycled moisture persisting under this trough
and over the CWA. Thus, can`t completely remove POPs, but
definitely on the low side and mostly over the mountain zones.
Temperatures through the entire period will remain seasonable to
slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
VFR conditions prevail through tomorrow morning. FEW-SCT090 linger
this evening with mainly SKC overnight. Widely isolated showers
and storms develop late in the period, most likely around KELP and
KLRU, but storm chances are too low for any TS mention in this TAF
cycle. This activity could produce gusty outflow winds to 30kts.
Prevailing winds will be AOB 8kts mostly from S-SE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Not much in the way of fire concerns this period. We do begin
drying out some but not dramatically. Today shows very low chances
of rain anywhere, and then Monday through the rest of the week,
just slight chances of daytime thunderstorms, mainly over the
mountain zones.
Min RH: Lowlands 25-35% through Thursday. Gila/Black Range
mountains 25-35% through Thursday. Sacramento Mtns...35-50%
through Thursday. Vent rates fair-good through Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  91  70  89 /   0  20  10  20
Sierra Blanca            60  85  60  83 /  10  50  10  30
Las Cruces               61  88  63  85 /   0  10  10  20
Alamogordo               60  88  62  87 /   0  10  10  20
Cloudcroft               44  67  45  64 /   0  20  10  40
Truth or Consequences    59  85  62  85 /   0  10  10  20
Silver City              56  81  57  80 /   0  10  10  40
Deming                   61  90  63  88 /   0  10  10  30
Lordsburg                61  86  62  85 /   0  10  10  30
West El Paso Metro       69  89  69  87 /   0  20  10  20
Dell City                61  88  62  87 /   0  20  10  20
Fort Hancock             67  91  68  89 /  10  50  10  30
Loma Linda               61  83  62  80 /   0  20  10  20
Fabens                   65  90  67  88 /  10  30  10  20
Santa Teresa             64  88  66  85 /   0  10  10  20
White Sands HQ           65  88  65  86 /   0  10  10  30
Jornada Range            61  86  62  85 /   0  10  10  30
Hatch                    60  89  62  88 /   0  10  10  30
Columbus                 63  90  65  87 /   0  10  20  20
Orogrande                59  85  62  85 /   0  10  10  20
Mayhill                  49  77  50  75 /   0  20  10  40
Mescalero                48  78  49  76 /   0  10  10  40
Timberon                 48  75  49  72 /   0  20  10  30
Winston                  49  79  50  79 /   0  10  10  30
Hillsboro                57  85  58  85 /   0  10  10  30
Spaceport                57  85  60  85 /   0  10  10  20
Lake Roberts             48  81  52  80 /   0  10  10  50
Hurley                   56  83  57  82 /   0  10  10  30
Cliff                    53  88  60  87 /   0  10  10  30
Mule Creek               49  84  57  84 /   0  10  10  30
Faywood                  57  83  59  81 /   0  10  10  30
Animas                   62  88  62  85 /   0  10  10  30
Hachita                  60  85  60  83 /   0  10  20  30
Antelope Wells           62  87  62  84 /  10  20  20  30
Cloverdale               61  83  60  80 /   0  20  10  40
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion