Blue Stem Lake, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

944
FXUS64 KOUN 280550
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1249 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions to persist
   through the upcoming week.
- Low chance for a pattern change heading into the first week of
   October.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Pleasant end to the weekend with warm temperatures and no rain
chances. The ridge will continue to push east and strengthen over
Illinois as an upper low over the near the southern tip of Nevada
slides east-northeast towards the Four Corners today. Thus, some
high clouds may stream across the area throughout the day with
southeasterly flow creeping in and bringing with it mid-level
Pacific moisture. At the surface, weak lee troughing may bring some
low-end breezy winds across western Oklahoma. Otherwise, the surface
ridge will stretch from Texas up to the Great Lakes with light south-
southeast winds over Oklahoma. Temperatures may be a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, but still expecting unseasonably warm highs
this afternoon in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The upper low over the Four Corners will become an open wave and
bring height falls to the forecast area Monday and Tuesday with
likely the "coolest" temperatures in the 7-day forecast expected
early this upcoming week. Highs will be near seasonable in the 80s
both days. As the shortwave passes over the Rockies Monday afternoon
convection will develop along the higher terrain but is expected to
remain to our west. Dry conditions will continue into Tuesday as the
shortwave passes over the Southern Plains.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The remainder of the week will feature another ridge building in
aloft and stretching across northwest Mexico northeastward towards
the Great Lakes. This will bring continued dry and unseasonably warm
conditions from the middle to the end of the work week. Cluster
analysis has a high probability (~85%) of a longwave trough across
the western CONUS by this weekend. However, the exact evolution
beyond next weekend of the wave will play a key role in any
potential change in the current weather pattern. So for now, the
start of October is looking to remain unseasonably warm and dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions to continue.
Light winds overnight and through the day tomorrow with a few
mid/highs clouds overhead.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  61  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         88  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  87  61  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           87  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     89  60  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         86  61  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...30

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion