Bridgeland, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

084
FXUS65 KSLC 240944
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
344 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Dry today with temperatures climbing back above
normal areawide. Moisture increases across southwest Utah on
Thursday. After a drier day on Friday, moisture will once again
bring a threat of thunderstorms to southern Utah Saturday, and
eastern Utah Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Friday)...Another seasonably cool
morning is on tap across Utah and southwest Wyoming as clear skies
and light winds promote efficient radiational cooling.
Observations this morning show some enhanced easterly winds
ongoing across east-west oriented canyons of northern Utah,
courtesy of easterly flow aloft. Winds remain sub-advisory,
generally in the 30 to 40 mph range given H7 flow only around 10
kts, per mesoanalysis.
An omega blocking pattern remains in place today, characterized by
a ridge of high pressure centered over the Intermountain West and
a cutoff low off the coast of California. The omega block is
expected to break down on Thursday as the cutoff low moves inland
into southern California. Moisture riding around the eastern
periphery of this low overspreads southwest Utah on Thursday,
yielding widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
area Thursday afternoon and evening. With PWAT anomalies pushing
150-200% of normal through this period, any storms that develop
will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. The Weather
Prediction Center highlights southwest Utah for a Marginal Risk
(level 1/4) for rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance; as such,
have increased the flash flood potential for Zion NP and Snow
Canyon/Red Cliffs areas to Probable with this morning`s forecast
update.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday)...To start the long term
period, the cut-off upper level low will be southwest of Vegas,
while a northern stream trough is crossing the northern
Intermountain Region. This trough will push a weak, dry cold front
into portions of northern Utah, but will be too far removed to
shift the position of the cut- off low.
Guidance has significantly narrowed the solution set Friday, largely
supporting the center of the upper level low to be near San Diego by
Friday afternoon. This was the driest potential solution for Utah,
with mainly isolated to widely scattered terrain driven showers and
thunderstorms across southern Utah.
By Saturday afternoon, the upper level low will be near the
California/Arizona border. By 00Z Saturday, precipitable water
values near the 97th to 99th percentile for this time of year will
be in place across southwestern Utah. This, combined with SBCAPE
values between 250-1000 J/kg (25th to 75th percentile values from
the LREF) and 10-15kts of deep layer shear will support the
development of more robust convection than Friday. With easterly mid-
level flow to the north of the upper level low, upslope processes in
somewhat unusual locations will also occur. This set up will support
at least isolated flash flooding across southern Utah. The Weather
Prediction Center has outlooked much of southern Utah in a marginal
risk area for excessive rainfall (meaning at least a 5% chance of
flash flood guidance being exceeded within 25 miles of a point).
While yesterday`s model runs had around 50% of the members favoring
a more open wave set-up with the ejection of the remnant upper level
low, the vast majority of ensemble members now maintain a cut-off
upper level low ejecting eastward ahead of the main trough Sunday
afternoon and evening. As a result, precipitable water values in
excess of the 90th to 97th percentile remain across Utah. With mean
SBCAPE values near 200-500 J/kg and deep layer shear around 10-15
kts, expect another round of convection...with the highest threat of
isolated flash flooding across the eastern half of Utah Sunday
afternoon and evening.
By Monday, shortwave ridging will cross the area, giving a brief
break in the action. However, a large, strong upper level trough
will be nearing the Pacific Coast Monday morning. This trough has
the potential to bring a strong cold front through the state by
midweek, with 700mb temperatures as low as 0C (with some outlier
solutions as cold as -3C or so).
&&
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions under mostly clear skies to
prevail through the TAF period. Light southeasterly winds this
morning persist through around 20Z before transitioning
northwesterly thereafter.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions to persist at
all regional terminals through the TAF period, with mostly clear
skies across the airspace. Winds remain generally light and
terrain driven.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Easterly flow aloft brings enhanced canyon winds
to wind-prone east-west oriented canyons across northern Utah
this morning, with gusts between 30-40 mph already observed.
Otherwise, generally light winds are expected to prevail through
the remainder of today as high pressure builds across the region.
This pattern will also support high temperatures climbing back
above average today, with continued dry conditions.
These dry conditions will be brief, as a low pressure system is
forecast to move inland into southern California on Thursday.
Associated moisture first spreads into southwestern Utah,
resulting in widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon and evening. Moisture will continue to spread northward
into the weekend as the low slowly meanders eastward across the
Desert Southwest. Any storms that develop through this period will
be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall in addition to
gusty outflow winds.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
Whitlam/Kruse
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NWS SLC Office Area Forecast Discussion