Brigham, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

154
FXUS65 KSLC 080914
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
314 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Southwest flow will build into the region through at
least Thursday ahead of an upper level disturbance. Chances of
accumulating precipitation increase Friday across northern and
central Utah, with temperatures falling around 5 to 10 degrees
below normal. Drier conditions will build into the area for next
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...It will seem a little more like fall than late
summer across the Beehive State over the next week or so, with an
active pattern in place. Early morning upper air and satellite
analysis indicates upper level ridging is centered across the
Rockies, while a relatively strong upper level low remains off the
northern California Coast. This slow moving upper level low will
impact the weather across the region through at least Friday.
Meanwhile, upper level diffluence is shifting eastward across the
Great Basin.
As the previously mentioned upper level low approaches the
northern California Coast through the day today, deep southwest
flow will develop across the region. By later this afternoon,
broad upper level diffluence will combine with a weak ejecting
shortwave trough to bring the threat of convection to the higher
terrain of Utah. This area of enhanced lift will shift north with
time through the evening and into the overnight hours. By around
01-06Z, portions of the Wasatch Front may see lightning and brief
heavy rain.
By Tuesday, the upper level low will be inland across the Pacific
Northwest into northern California. Similar to Monday, broad upper
level diffluence will remain in place across portions of northern
and eastern Utah, bringing another day of isolated to scattered
convection.
Meanwhile, across western Utah, 700mb winds will increase to
around 30kts or so. This, coupled with minimum humidities near to
below 15% will bring pockets of locally critical fire weather
conditions to western Utah in areas with critically dry fuels.
With the upper level trough now approaching the Reno area
Wednesday, drier air will work into the state, with 700mb winds
increasing to 35kts or so. Humidities will once again fall to near
15% or below across western Utah. This will bring another period
of locally critical fire weather conditions.
By Friday, ensemble systems represent a range of solutions that
largely support an upper level low shifting into the Great Basin
by Friday afternoon. One of the bigger questions is how quickly
dry air will work into Utah. Around 20% of the members are much
quicker to bring this dry air into Utah, thus reducing the threat
of widespread precipitation across northern and central Utah. The
remaining 80% of members suggest this drier air will hold off
sufficiently to allow for more widespread precipitation across
northern and central Utah as the upper level low ejects across the
region.
Given unstable conditions in the colder airmass behind this upper
level system, additional convection will be possible Saturday
afternoon, particularly across northern Utah. Temperatures will
average around 5-10 degrees below normal by Friday, closer to
around 5 degrees or so below normal over the weekend.
While a shortwave ridge will build into Utah once again next
weekend, the next upper level trough will already be approaching
the Pacific Coast.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Scattered to broken clouds early will
diminish, with mostly clear conditions by late morning lasting
into the evening. Light southeast winds will last into the
afternoon, with a transition to light northwest winds around
20-21Z. Clouds will increase after 00Z, with around a 30% chance
for rain showers with isolated thunderstorms from 02-06Z. Showers
will be capable of altering wind directions and speeds, otherwise
light northwest winds will transition to southeast around 03Z.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Mostly clear conditions
will prevail much of the day. Southwest winds will gust around
20-30 knots for southwest Wyoming and southwest Utah from 18-03Z.
Scattered to broken clouds will build into southwest Wyoming and
northern Utah after 00Z. Scattered rain showers with isolated
thunderstorms roughly between KPVU and KOGD will track northeast
into southwest Wyoming from 00-06Z. Showers and thunderstorms will
be capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Weather across Utah is looking more fall-like
over the next week or so. High pressure will gradually shift east
as an upper level system slowly crosses through the West through
Friday. Expect gradually increasing southwesterly winds Monday
into Tuesday, with minimum humidities falling near to below 15%
across western Utah by Tuesday afternoon. These locally critical
fire weather conditions will continue through at least Wednesday.
By Thursday, the upper level system may be close enough to the
Great Basin to bring increasing humidities.
Thursday into Friday...confidence is increasing in the threat of
wetting rains across at least northern and central Utah as the
upper level system finally kicks out of the Interior West.
Temperatures will fall to around 5 to 10 degrees below normal by
the end of the workweek.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
Kruse/Wilson
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NWS SLC Office Area Forecast Discussion