Bruning, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

450
FXUS63 KGID 202030
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
330 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few non-severe storms will be possible across mainly north
  central Kansas after midnight tonight. An isolated storm in
  south central Nebraska is not entirely out of the range of
  possibilities.
- The next best precipitation chances (up to 60-70%) lie Monday
  afternoon through Wednesday morning. Several rounds of
  scattered storms is expected to file across the area.
- A few strong to severe storms will additionally be possible
  Monday night as a cold front passes through the area. The main
  concerns would be wind gusts up to 60 MPH and hail up to the
  size of quarters.
- A dry forecast lies beyond Wednesday with temperatures mainly in
  the 70s to low 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Tonight...
More breaks in the clouds this afternoon than initially expected
has allowed temperatures for the day to exceed our expectations.
Highs this afternoon are on track to reach the mid 70s to low
80s with winds staying light to variable at times. Lows tonight
will hang in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A few storms will be
possible tonight for primarily our north central Kansas areas
and far southern Nebraska areas. A breakout storm coming down
from off the Nebraska sandhills can`t be ruled out either as a
few models including the NAM and HRRR have hinted at this as a
slim possibility. In reality, most Nebraska areas should be
spared. Timing-wise, any storms or showers that does makes it
into the area should arrive no sooner than 10PM and should be
out the door by 10AM Sunday. Severe weather is not expected,
although a strong storm remains possible.
Synoptically, the mid-to-upper level pattern today is composed of
ridging over the southwest U.S. with a strengthening trough across
the Northern Plains to the western Great Lake states. This leaves
northwest flow aloft for us today for central NE/KS. A shortwave,
identified by a small mid-level vorticity maxima across the CO/WY
rockies, will be the feature tonight that initiates any storms.
Sunday through Tuesday...
Highs will be a touch warmer on Sunday (upper 70s to low 80s) and
Monday (low to mid 80s) with southerly light warm air transporting
winds. The ridge across the southeast should stretch up into the
Central Plains while another trough, this time seated upstream
across the northwest U.S., comes ashore. This wave will cross over
the rockies on Monday and will stir up the weather for monday night
and Tuesday.
A cold front passing through Monday evening will carry a few storms
along with it. Scattered storms, potentially a few severe, could
emerge as early as Monday afternoon with off-and-on chances for
storms lasting through the night and through Tuesday. The SPC has
the full area included under a marginal risk for Monday. With MUCAPE
values up to 2,000-2,500J/km and an impressive 7-9C/km low-to-
mid level lapse rates, it should not take too much in terms of
forcing to initiate storms. Large hail and damaging thunderstorm
wind gusts will be the primary severe concerns with these
storms.
Beyond the chance for storms again on Tuesday, the front as well as
excessive cloud coverage should be enough to keep highs from
exceeding the mid 60s to low 70s (the coolest temps in our 7-day
forecast period). Winds should flip to the north behind the front,
becoming slightly more active. Winds blowing between 10-15 MPH could
gust as high as 20-25 MPH Tuesday afternoon.
Wednesday and Beyond...
Beyond a few lingering showers/storms Wednesday morning as the early
to mid week trough passes over, the rest of the forecast through
next Saturday is dry. The leading pattern for the end of next week
will be for the system to exit towards the southeast. This will bring
back a ridging pattern for the area. An omega blocking pattern is
favored to form, slowing down the mid-to-upper level`s
progression. If this scenario plays out, the ridging pattern
could remain simi-stationaly across much of the central U.S.
for several days. This would likely also block any major
precipitation chances for the region. In addition, temperatures
should remain fairly stable warming back to the 70s to low 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Despite scattered to broken cloud bases today and Sunday,
ceilings are not expected to fall much lower than 10,000ft. Fog
is not impossible between 10-15z, although, the confidence is
not great enough to include in the 18z TAF. A 20% chance for a
pop-up shower/storm is possible between 10-14z. Winds will be
calm to light most of the day as northeasterly winds gradually
shift southward for Sunday.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion