Bucklin, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

005
FXUS63 KEAX 200807
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
307 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers across northern Missouri this morning. Scattered
  showers a possibly a thunderstorm this afternoon.
- Additional showers and storms possible overnight into Sunday.
- Unsettled weather pattern continues next week with multiple
  chances of precipitation through Thursday. Tuesday appears to
  be the only day with possible severe potential at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Early this morning, the upper level trough that has been the main
driver for the unsettled weather for most of the past week is moving
across Iowa. This has allowed light showers and an occasional rumble
of thunder to develop across northern Missouri. These showers will
persist across northern Missouri through the morning until the upper
level trough shifts northeast during the day today. In its wake,
quasi-zonal upper level flow will develop over the area. At the
surface, a weak surface trough will bisect the CWA. A few shortwaves
in the -quasi-zonal flow aloft may provide enough lift for scattered
showers and a few storms to develop. Showers/storms will be light
and severe weather is not anticipated with weak instability.
Otherwise conditions will be mostly cloudy today with highs in the
mid 70s to near 80. Late tonight into Sunday morning a stronger
upper level shortwave will drop into the central Plains. This
feature couple with a weak southwesterly LLJ nosing into the area
will allow scattered shower and thunderstorms to develop across the
area. Although, instability will be a little stronger with this
round of storms, on the order of 1000-1500J/Kg of MUCAPE, shear will
be weak which should keep storms well below severe thresholds.
During the day Sunday the upper level shortwave will traverse the
forecast area continuing widely scattered shower chances. highs
again will be in the mid 70s to near 80. Sunday night into Monday,
the upper level flow will remain quasi-zonal a LLJ will nose into
the southern CWA Sunday night into Monday morning continuing chance
PoPs across the southern CWA however, conditions should briefly dry
out Monday afternoon. Highs Monday will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s
The extended forecast looks to remain active as Monday night into
Tuesday a upper level trough will dig from the northern Rockies into
the western High Plains. This will force a surface cold front
through the area bringing another chance for widespread storms to
the forecast area. Tuesday night the upper level trough with a
closed low in the base will move into the area and stall. This
feature will remain anchored over the area though Thursday night
before finally shifting east Friday. This will continue unsettled
weather across the CWA through Thursday before conditions finally
dry out Friday. Highs Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 70s but
will cool into the low to mid 70s Wednesday and Thursday behind the
cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A small group of showers is entering northwest Missouri and will
continue to impact STJ. Additional development is expected
overnight into early Saturday morning. Radar trends are
indicating that most of this will be shower activity, as there
has been very little lightning and thunder reported with this
activity. Ceilings are expected to remain VFR, though a
scattered deck between 2-3 kft may develop with heavier shower
activity. Additional development is possible through Saturday
but will be scattered. For now will focus shower activity in KC
metro terminals between 09-13z as the main wave moves in above,
and will amend TAFs as needed for additional development.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Krull

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion