Buffalo Gap, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

274
FXUS64 KSJT 141108
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
608 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms
  today along and west of a Throckmorton to Sonora line.
- Otherwise, conditions will continue to be dry and warm through
  the upcoming week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Early this morning, some lingering showers over the Big Country are
continuing to dissipate.  Temperatures generally are in the mid 70s
with mostly cloudy skies and light southeast winds.  Much of west
Texas will remain at the south end of a mid-level trough centered
over eastern Colorado. Just like yesterday, south to southeast winds
at the surface should increase this afternoon with gusts around 20
MPH at times. Similar to yesterday, close to 1000 J/kg of
instability is expected to develop this afternoon, mainly west of a
line from Throckmorton to Sonora. Given forecast high temperatures
in the low 90s with dewpoints in the mid 60s, there is a low chance
for showers and thunderstorms over our western counties this
afternoon. The aforementioned trough axis is expected to lift
northeastward throughout the day today which could provide some
dynamic support for any storms that develop  So far, high-res models
indicate storms will develop over the Permian Basin and move into
our western counties late this afternoon and evening before
dissipating after sunset. While some showers and/or clouds could
linger through part of the night, winds should diminish and allow
low temperatures to range from the mid 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Most of the shower and storm activity should be over by Monday
morning, but we could see some isolated stuff linger into Monday
afternoon. The weather will stay relatively quiet for Tuesday and
Wednesday as weak high pressure builds aloft. Temperatures will be a
few degrees above normal and PoPs will stay on the low end. Rain
chances increase slightly for late Wednesday into thursday, as an
upper level trough approaches the area. Some models are hinting at a
front around our area Thursday into Friday, but there is still a lot
of uncertainty with the southward progression and timing of the
potential front. Right now, the front looks to have minimal impact
on our area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
An outflow boundary from earlier overnight convection is currently
moving through the Big Country, which will turn winds out of the
northwest for a few hours. Some light showers are occurring behind
this boundary. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected
for the next 24 hours. By 17Z, south to southeast winds will
increase to 10-15KT with gusts up to 20KT at times. There is a low
chance for thunderstorms after 21Z west of a line from
Throckmorton to Sonora, but confidence was too low to include at
individual TAF sites at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     92  71  93  70 /  20  10  20   0
San Angelo  89  68  91  66 /  20  10  10   0
Junction    91  66  91  64 /  10  10  10   0
Brownwood   92  68  92  67 /   0   0  10   0
Sweetwater  90  69  91  69 /  40  20  20   0
Ozona       86  68  89  65 /  30  10  10   0
Brady       89  68  89  66 /  10   0  10   0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...SK

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion