Burns, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

704
FXUS63 KICT 141728
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1228 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening,
  mainly along and west of the Flint Hills. An isolated severe
  storm or two possible late this afternoon and evening west of
  I-135.
- Unsettled weather pattern continues Tuesday or Tuesday night
  through Friday, with additional off-and-on rounds of showers
  and thunderstorms.
- Near to above average temperatures through Tuesday, turning
  near to below average Wednesday through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
PRECIPITATION:
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...A deep upper trough approaching from the
west amidst seasonably rich moisture will support scattered to at
time numerous showers/thunderstorms expanding east across central
and eastern Kansas this morning through this evening. Thinking
activity will be most numerous/widespread through early afternoon,
especially west of Interstate 135, although afternoon heating amidst
increasing large scale ascent should support at least isolated to
widely scattered showers/thunderstorms as far east as southeast
Kansas.
Regarding severe weather potential, limited instability should
prevent severe storms for most, with small hail, gusty winds, and
locally heavy rainfall the primary concerns. However, thinking there
is a window for an isolated marginally severe storms late this
afternoon into the evening generally west of I-135. It`s here that
an adequate combination of instability and shear amidst strong forcing
could produce a few storms capable of dime to quarter size hail and
50-60 mph winds.
Widespread heavy rainfall appears unlikely with this system, with
most areas likely seeing around one-quarter inch or less. However,
localized 1+ inch amounts are possible within the stronger
convection, would may support localized minor flooding concerns.
MONDAY...Could see a few lingering isolated showers/thunderstorms
across central and eastern Kansas, within a continued moist airmass
ahead of another approaching upper trough. Severe weather is not
expected.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A slow-moving deep upper trough over Mid-
America will support off-and-on scattered to at times numerous
showers/thunderstorms across the region Tuesday or Tuesday night
through Friday. While an isolated marginally severe thunderstorm or
two is possible throughout the time period, most activity will
remain below severe levels. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
NEXT WEEKEND...The unsettled weather pattern looks to continue, with
another shortwave potentially supporting additional showers and
thunderstorms across the region.
TEMPERATURES:
Near to above average temperatures look to persist today through
Tuesday. From Wednesday through next weekend, increased
precipitation chances and decreasing atmospheric thickness should
support a modest cool down, with many locations in the 70s to low
80s for daytime highs.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Showers and storms possible west of the Flint Hills this
afternoon and evening, then VFR conditions to prevail during the
latter half of the TAF period.
A broken line of showers and storms continues to inch eastward
early this afternoon. At 1725Z, it was located along a KSLN,
KHUT, KEND line. It should crawl across the I-135 corridor
within the next few hours. Vis reductions from brief heavy
rainfall along with a few lightning strikes will be possible in
stronger storms.
Additional development is possible later this afternoon and
evening west of a KSLN-KHUT-KEND line, and these could produce
gusty winds and small hail. However, there is quite a bit of
uncertainty in coverage of this round of storms.
After 06Z, VFR conditions should prevail again and persist
through the remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion