431 FXUS63 KGID 091729 AFDGIDArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog this morning will burn off by midday, with a potential repeat of some morning fog both Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
- Spotty/periodic thunderstorm chances are anticipated across at least parts of the local area through the end of the work week.
- Temperatures will continue a steady climb across the area each day this week, peaking in the lower 90s Friday afternoon.
- Slightly cooler weather is anticipated over the upcoming weekend as shower/thunderstorm activity increases across the local area.
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.UPDATE... Issued at 458 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Per coordination with neighboring offices and mainly based on HRRR model data, decided to issue a dense fog advisory for western portions of the local area through 10 AM. So far, only Cambridge, NE has seen visibilities fall notably (with web cams so far not verifying current conditions), but models indicate there will be rapid deterioration over the next hour or two, and thought it was prudent to issue the advisory at this time.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Low level stratus can be seen expanding in coverage across the region this morning as the showers and thunderstorms that developed late last night continue to exit the area to the east. So far we have seen only some patchy fog across Furnas county locally, but expect fog to expand in coverage over the next few hours as we approach daybreak, with the thickest fog anticipated across areas mainly along and west of Highway 281. Once developed, it will likely take several hours for this fog to dissipate, potentially holding down high temperatures a few degrees, with mostly sunny skies eventually expected to return to the entire area during the afternoon hours.
For the rest of the week...expect temperatures to gradually warm across the local area each day as high pressure aloft intensifies ahead of a west coast trough. This will be a bit of a messy ridge, however, with indications of multiple weak disturbances reaching the local area and bringing with them spotty precip chances primarily focused during the evening and overnight hours.
Eventually, expect the west coast trough to migrate eastward by the weekend, bringing a better chance for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity...with ensembles showing an uptick in precipitation chances over the weekend. That said, most members indicate precip totals this weekend will be modest, with overall qpf amounts generally less than 0.5". Still plenty of time for changes, but for the time being it appears that there will be increased cloud cover, slightly cooler temperatures and some light precip around over the upcoming weekend, with severe weather unlikely.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Gradually diminishing lower level stratus will continue that trend to start off this period...and while sub-VFR conditions are around to start, satellite imagery suggest that it won`t be long before VFR conditions return. Kept VFR conditions going through this evening into part of the overnight hours, before models show the potential for fog/stratus returning to both terminal areas. There are still some difference with just how low conditions go...do have a few hours around sunrise with 1SM and BKN010...with VFR conditions returning mid-morning. Kept this period dry, most models keep the best precip potential WSW of the terminal areas. A weak surface pattern looks to keep winds on the light/variable side...with more SE winds toward the end of the period.
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.HYDROLOGY... Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
An Areal Flood Warning for much of Mitchell County Kansas continues through 2 PM this afternoon. Excessive runoff from rainfall that impacted much of Mitchell county Monday morning will continue to work its way downstream through the morning hours, helping to ease flood concerns.
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.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None.
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UPDATE...Rossi DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...ADP HYDROLOGY...Rossi
NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion