Calhoun, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

166
FXUS63 KILX 240639
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
139 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light showers continue today with the greatest coverage south
  of I-72/Danville early this morning and again this
  afternoon/evening.
- A stretch of dry weather returns Thursday through at least early
  next week with temps returning to above normal (highs well into
  the 80s).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
This morning, a closed upper low continues to spin over the
central Great Lakes region with long wave troughing extending
southwest across the central Great Plains. Early morning water
vapor imagery reveals several shortwaves embedded within the
trough including a wave over southern Illinois and another wave
over Kansas. The closer wave in Illinois has been responsible for
the light showers overnight but should shift into Indiana by mid
to late this morning with a lull in precip coverage around midday.
Additional scattered showers are expected to move across portions
of central Illinois this afternoon and evening as the western wave
digs across the mid Mississippi Valley. This next batch of rain
is favored to stay near and south of the I-72/Danville corridor
through this evening.
Meanwhile, an expansive surface ridge extending from the southern
Great Plains into the Upper Midwest late Wednesday gradually
builds across the Midwest by Friday. This will start a stretch of
dry weather over the region. Models have backed off on precip
chances Thursday with the surface ridge axis being slightly faster
to build into the region, though cannot complete rule out (20%
chance) a few lingering light and low-topped showers across far
east central Illinois.
Forecast uncertainty increases over the weekend into early next week
owing to a upper low cutting off over the lower Mississippi Valley
this weekend with a Rex Block developing. As it usually the case
with cutoff lows, predictability of its path is low as it is
progged to meander over the deep south into the middle of next
week. Showery activity is favored to stay to our south, but as the
low meanders northward, this will introduce some chance for
showers into the region. While the low is off to our south,
temperatures will trend to well above normal with highs in the
mid to upper 80s.
Deubelbeiss
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Broad areas of light rain and a few isolated showers will persist
through the overnight, gradually shifting southeast of the
terminals into the morning. Main concern this period is the
expected lower ceilings, with MVFR likely at all terminals and
some potential for IFR. Guidance is also hinting at lower visbys
beneath this cloud deck, mainly between 10-13z, but am not
confident in reduced visbys occurring outside of the rain which is
looking less widespread than previously forecast. Did maintain
the tempo groups mentioning lower visby (2SM) for now. The
ceilings should persist through much of the morning, with
improvement back to VFR expected some time between 16- 19z. Winds
will be out of the northeast around 10 knots.
Erwin
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion