Calhoun, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

152
FXUS64 KJAN 200525
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1225 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
The convection today was still noted along and south of our
Highway 84 corridor. This activity was dissipating but being
sustained along outflow boundary interactions. Once this
convection dissipates by midnight, no additional convection is
anticipated tonight. Temperatures were rain cooled below forecast
minimums across portions of our north and the forecast minimums
were adjusted. Warmer than normal temperatures are still expected
areawide. /22/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Today & Tonight...
Upstream convection has unexpectedly stalled out just to our
northwest, while simultaneously deepening. The current thinking is
that once the supporting jet begins to shift, this should allow for
those showers and thunderstorms to finally make their way into our
area, especially along the ArkLaMiss Delta region this afternoon and
could persist a couple of hours after sunset.
Should we receive those showers in the Delta and northern reaches of
the area, fog/mist development will be possible in those areas. High
surface moisture and low temperatures bottoming out in the mid 60s
will allow for short lived thermal cross-over just before and after
sunrise.
Through the Weekend...
Tomorrow and Sunday the forecast area may be more suppressed below
upper-level shortwave ridging, but moisture values should still
support at least a few isolated showers or storms with daytime
heating.
Through Next Week...
The current pattern will break down over the next few days,
resulting in a more progressive zonal flow pattern over the CONUS
through the next work week. A few low pressure systems moving
through the region and deeper moisture pooled in the Deep South may
actually yield some heavy rainfall potential before the week is
over. /OAJ/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Several northern TAF sites (mainly GLH, GWO, and GTR) could see a
brief drop in visibility down to MVFR ceilings by 09Z Saturday due
to patchy fog. Visibilities will improve to VFR conditions across
northern sites by 13Z Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail across other TAF sites through the period. /CR/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  94  70  92 /   0  10  10  10
Meridian      68  94  67  92 /   0  10   0   0
Vicksburg     70  94  69  93 /   0  10  10  10
Hattiesburg   70  95  70  94 /   0  10   0   0
Natchez       69  94  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
Greenville    69  94  69  92 /   0  10  10  20
Greenwood     69  95  67  93 /   0  10  10  10
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
22/OAJ/CR

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion