Calypso, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

177
FXUS62 KMHX 090710
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
310 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north with a front stalled
offshore early this week. A shortwave moves across the area
with a surface low lifting along a stalled front offshore late
today through Wednesday bringing rain chances along the coast.
High pressure builds in again for the end of the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 215 AM Tuesday...Shortwave energy lifting across the area
will aid in developing a low pressure area along the the
frontal boundary stalled off the coast today. The low will aid
in drawing low level moisture toward the coast bringing greater
cloud cover across the region. Isolated to widely scattered
showers expected to move onshore across the Outer and Inner
Banks this afternoon as the front wobbles closer to the shore,
but areas farther inland will remain dry. With greater cloud
cover expected, temperatures should be a few degrees cooler than
today, and remain mostly in the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...Little change in the pattern tonight with
low pressure continuing to lift NNE along the front, passing
around 150nm east of Cape Hatteras. Low level moisture and
widely scattered shower chances continuing near the coast but
expected to remain dry across inland areas. Lows will be in the
mid to upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday...
Key Messages
- Cooler, drier conditions this week
- Coastal trough lingers, best chances of rain Tue and Wed
   along OBX
- Dry end to the week as high pressure builds again
Front remains stalled along the Gulf Stream through the long
term. NE flow behind the front as high pressure over the NE
builds into the region, bringing a stretch of drier, and cooler
conditions inland. A slightly stronger shortwave looks to move
through along the coastal trough into Wednesday. This will
bring the best chances of showers reaching the coast, especially
OBX where PoPs are highest. After the shortwave moves through,
original high pressure over the NE gets pushed towards the
Canadian Maritimes, and a second high builds in from the Great
Lakes region. some indications of a weak low forming along the
stalled front/coastal trough off the FL/GA/SC coast this coming
weekend into early next week as a deep positively tilted trough
moves through. It is too soon to tell what impacts, if any, are
expected with very low confidence on the timing, track, and
intensity of the low should it form.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 2 AM Tuesday...VFR conditions prevail across ENC early
this morning. Low pressure will develop along the stalled front
off the coast will bring increasing low level moisture across
rtes later today and tonight. MVFR cigs expected to develop
along the coast this morning and gradually spread inland through
the rest of today and tonight. Guidance showing prob of MVFR
cigs at EWN greater than 60 percent developing late this
morning and continuing through the rest of the short term. Probs
remain less that 40 percent at the rest of the TAF sites
through this afternoon, however, low stratus will spread
further inland this evening with MVFR cigs expected at all TAF
sites through much of the overnight. IFR probs greater than 60
percent late tonight along the coast but remain less than 50% at
the TAF sites.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Low stratus possible as northerly flow may
result in a cold air damming regime along the coastal plain this
coming week. Wednesday rain chances with drops in cig and vis
along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Strong NE winds around 15-25 kt with gusts
to around 30 kt and seas up to 7-10 ft continues today with a
front stalled off the coast and high pressure ridging into the
region from the north. A weak area of low pressure will develop
along the front late today and begin to lift NE about 150 nm
east of Cape Hatteras tonight allowing gradients to weaken some
with winds becoming Nly around 10-20 kt. Seas will gradually
subside tonight to around 4-7 ft late tonight.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Monday...
Key Messages:
- Prolonged period of SCA conditions likely to continue into
  Tuesday night
- Winds fall below 25kts Wednesday, but near Small Craft
  Advisory conditions continue through the remainder of the work
  week
- Another chance for SCA conditions late this week
Seas abate as winds ease into Wednesday with sub 6ft returning
late Wednesday. Even as these winds lessen, they will be
15-25kt out of the NE through the workweek. Wednesday shortwave
moves through along a lingering coastal trough, increasing
precip chances for areas along the coast and coastal waters.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 700 PM Monday...The combination of persistent (but sub-
gale) northeast winds, and higher than normal astronomical tides
will produce elevated waters levels today through most of the
work week. Depending on wind and tide fluctuations, water levels
will likely be a few feet above normal, and as much as 1 to 2
feet AGL (above ground level). The highest water levels are
expected along the southern Pamlico Sound and adjacent tidal
rivers and creeks, as well as across Core and Bogue Sounds. In
this area, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued to highlight
the potential for minor impacts. Higher water levels are also
expected oceanside, especially north of Cape Hatteras, and
should be limited to minor beach and dune erosion, but minor
ocean overwash can`t be ruled out given the still weakened state
of many dune structures across Dare County. For the time being,
advisories are not planned for oceanside areas of the OBX, but
this will be re-evaluated after future high tides, especially if
notable impacts are observed.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ080-
     094-194>196-199.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ131-135-
     137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion