Capitol View, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

715
FXUS62 KCAE 181643
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1243 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of isolated showers this afternoon and again Friday, the
area remains generally dry under a retreating upper trough and
building surface high pressure through the weekend. Warming
temps can also be expected through the weekend. Slightly cooler
temperatures return for the start of the next week with a
potential for rain increasing slightly toward midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Isolated showers possible this afternoon and evening
A weak upper level trough remains stationed over the Southeast.
As shortwaves work through the broader flow they could help
spark a couple of weak showers today. At the surface, a sea
breeze should work inland through weak gradient flow and support
shallow convection into the evening. We may see an isolated
shower or two this afternoon and evening but rain amounts will
be light given the overall dry air mass.
Afternoon highs continue with a warming trend, with readings in
the upper 80s to around 90. For tonight: light winds, clearing
skies, and dry air should allow for another night with good
radiational cooling. Overnight lows in the middle 60s. With weak
winds and near ideal radiational cooling conditions we may see
fog develop tonight. The HRRR suggests fog development along the
coastal plain advancing inland where low level moisture is
higher.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Warm and mainly dry conditions continue.
The main upper level trough is forecast to continue lifting out
of the area for Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile, a shortwave
trough is forecast to move across the region Friday. This
shortwave could spark and isolated shower or storm Friday
afternoon, but probabilities are around 10% at this time. An
even lower chance for shower activity is forecast for Saturday,
though a rogue shower can`t be ruled out for the far western
portions of the forecast area. Temperature-wise, with the upper
trough lifting and high pressure building in, highs are expected
to be near 90 each day for the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Slightly cooler with slight chances for rain late in the period.
Surface high pressure is expected to control the weather as we
head into the week ahead. All in all, the first half of the week
is expected to be pretty normal. A check of the NAEFS
situational awareness table shows most variables in the average
range through much of the forecast period. However, as we head
toward midweek, an upper trough begins moving toward the area,
but guidance differs on the timing. Nonetheless, the approaching
trough could be enough to trigger some much needed rainfall to
the area toward the end of the long term period.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions possible at AGS and OGB again tonight
Light and variable winds expected through the day. A sea breeze
may advance through OGB today moving into the Midlands and
CSRA. This may trigger a weak shower or two this afternoon and
evening but any rain amounts would be light. There`s a low (less
than 20 percent) chance of a shower affecting the TAF sites
mainly due to the limited coverage. Convection could linger into
the evening given upper level shortwave activity but again
coverage will be very limited.
Overnight, with weak winds in the low levels (around 10 kts)
and near ideal radiational cooling conditions we may see fog
develop. The HRRR suggests fog development along the coastal
plain advancing inland where low level moisture is higher. IFR
visibilities are most likely at OGB and fog prone AGS. However
fog may also develop into the other TAF sites early Friday
morning.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A relatively dry air mass will
hinder widespread rainfall and restrictions. However short
periods of early morning fog/stratus remains possible at AGS and
OGB through the extended.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion