Carlile, Wyoming Weather Forecast Discussion

703
FXUS63 KUNR 200438
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1038 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and warmer weather will prevail for this upcoming weekend.
- Rain chances will begin to increase early next week.
- By midweek, forecast uncertainty grows as the weather pattern
  becomes largely unsettled.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Thursday)
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A pleasant day is on display across west South Dakota and east
Wyoming today with current temperatures in the upper 50s to mid
60s under mostly clear skies. An upper-level low, currently
situated over eastern South Dakota, will continue rotating east
towards Wisconsin and Minneapolis. Thus, resulting in warmer and
drier weather for the upcoming weekend. This morning`s light
showers have shifted more southeast creating a nice rest of our
Friday. Overnight, patchy to widespread fog is once again
expected form over much of the forecast area as winds go light
under mostly clear skies, along a weak forecasted low-level
inversion. Fog should lift by mid-morning as winds increase.
A much warmer and drier weekend, around 7-10 degrees warmer
compared to the last several days, is on tap as the aformentioned
upper low continues to push east. The upper-level pattern will
transition to more of a northwest flow regime as a deep trough
pushes into the PAC NW with a cold front out in front. This front
will push into our forecast area Monday morning, bringing breezy,
cooler conditions, and a return of rain chances for the start of
next workweek. Past Monday, forecast confidence decreases a decent
amount as a seeming blocking pattern begins to build in. The NBM
solution has isolated to scattered, post-frontal shower and
thunderstorms persisting mainly over southwest South Dakota and
much of northeast Wyoming for much of Tuesday. However, with much
model discrepancy and high pressure quickly building in behind
the aformentioned front, drier weather may be the story Tuesday.
Depending on how quickly this blocking pattern is able to
breakdown will largely impact weather next workweek. Something to
note, LREF does have an upper-low pushing in form the southwest,
towards the southern rockies, but staying south of our area. If
this upper-low does rotate more north, the forecast in the latter
part of next week could vary greatly. Stay tuned..
AEH
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 1036 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
After 06z patchy fog may develop on the SD plains with local MVFR
to IFR conditions, which my reach the KRAP terminal in the early
morning hours. Fog is expected to lift late morning, with VFR
conditions then expected the remainder of the period.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Herdliska
AVIATION...Dye

NWS UNR Office Area Forecast Discussion