Carlisle, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

491
FXUS64 KLZK 061714
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1214 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
-A much cooler day is in store for the Natural State as the cold front
 has nearly completely the journey from north to south across the
 state.
-High temperatures on Saturday will range statewide from the low 70s
 to the low 80s.
-A trend of below average temperatures will continue into Monday across
 the state before temperatures overall gradually increase to
 seasonal averages by mid-week and a few degrees above average by
 late-week.
-After the rain and isolated storms from late Friday night/early Saturday
 morning exits the state completely by mid-day on Saturday, no
 chances for any rainfall are forecast over the next 7 days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
In the upper lvls, the digging trof positioned over the Mid-South
will eject northeastward into the Eastern region of the CONUS. A
transitions to northwesterly flow over Arkansas is expected into
early next week before an upper lvl ridge begins to build over the
region.
At the sfc, a cold front continues to slowly sag south and will be
nearing the Arkansas/Louisiana border by sunrise on Saturday. In the
wake of this FROPA will be a region of sfc high pressure that will
move into region and supply the state with temperatures of roughly 8
to 10 degrees below average compared to normals for this time of the
year which will be felt on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Into mid-
week, temperatures overall aided by a combination of east-
southeasterly winds at the sfc and the upper lvl ridge moving into
place over Arkansas will lead to efficient WAA that will place
temperatures back to seasonal normals for this time of the year.
Finally, by late-week, temperatures will continue to gradually
increase becoming a few degrees above average for this time of the
year. A concern looking ahead over the next seven days is the lack
of rain chances across the state. Arkansas will be entering a period
of warming temperatures into the workweek combined with no chances
for precipitation over at least the next week. Drought conditions
may begin to worsen if this becomes a trend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Light showers over parts of east, southeast, and southern Arkansas
will exit the state at or just after sunset. MVFR/IFR ceilings
will gradually improve for central and southern Arkansas
terminals through early afternoon, then VFR ceilings are expected
to the remaining southern terminals by late afternoon. Dry
conditions will prevail once the remaining showers exit the state
later this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     53  84  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         59  83  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       51  80  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    57  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  58  82  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     61  85  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      57  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  51  83  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        53  84  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     57  83  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   56  84  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         55  84  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      56  82  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion