Carlock, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

043
FXUS63 KILX 270857
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
357 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A stretch of dry weather will likely continue through next week
  across central and southeast IL. This will worsen the ongoing
  drought conditions over central and southern IL where a moderate
  to severe drought prevails.
- Unseasonably warm daytime highs in the mid 80s to near 90 will
  prevail through Tuesday, with Sunday and Monday being the
  hottest. Above normal highs in the low to mid 80s still expected
  Wednesday through next Saturday. Lows will mainly be in the
  50s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
The 08Z/3 am surface analysis shows weak 1013-1015 mb high
pressure extending from PA through southeast IL into AR. A cold
front was over central MN into eastern NE and nw KS near Goodland.
High pressure was providing clear skies with light to calm winds
over CWA. Temps were mainly in the 50s, with Peoria 60F and
Mattoon airport 62F. Some patchy shallow/ground fog noted near the
Indiana border with Robinson vsby down to 2.5 miles. Aloft a 575
decameter 500 mb low was over northern AL, embedded in a trof over
the eastern Ohio river valley and into AL and FL panhandle. A 574
decameter low was over far southeast CA. In between these lows
was a seasonably strong subtropical ridge over Mexico and Texas
was ridging into MO/IA, nw IL and southern WI.
Latest CAM trends show some fog development over southeast IL and
near waterways/rivers next few hours and most common south of
I-70 through 8 am. The shallow ground fog will lift quickly by mid
morning as it did yesterday. Weak surface high pressure will stay
near southeast IL today while weakening cold front moves into
southeast parts of IA/WI by 00Z/7 pm today. The subtropical ridge
builds more into IL as 500 mb heights of 577-580 decameters rise
to around 582 decameters by days end. Nearly full sunshine again
today as cumulus clouds to be se and nw of CWA, with light winds.
Highs in the mid 80s over much of CWA, with upper 80s over the IL
river valley. Peoria`s will come close to their record high today
of 89F set in 2021. Fairly low dewpoints in the low to mid 50s,
with minimum RH`s approaching 30% this afternoon. Luckily winds
stay light today but with afternoon heat and drying ground and
crops, can not discount an isolated field fire with harvest
underway. The front weakens/dissipates as it moves into northern
CWA during tonight with just a light north to ne winds shift.
Patchy shallow ground fog may develop overnight near waterways
especially se IL but coverage appears too limited to mention at
this time. Lows overnight in the mid to upper 50s and a few spots
could reach lower 50s se of the IL river. The very dry air mass
has allowed larger diurnal swing in temperatures recently and
expect this to continue next few days.
The subtropical ridge strengthens over IL Sunday with 500 mb
heights rising to 588-591 decameters Sunday afternoon with a
cutoff 500 mb high near central IL Sunday night into Tuesday.
Sunday and Monday to likely see the hottest temps with highs in
the upper 80s to near 90F (shy of record highs in the mid 90s to
near 100F). Still very warm Tue with highs in the mid to upper
80s. Ample sunshine continues with light winds, while minimum RHs
to reach 30-35% during the afternoon hours.
Strong Canadian high pressure 1032-1034 mb to move to James Bay
Canada by sunrise Wed, into sw Quebec by Thu morning and into New
England and mid Atlantic States by Fri morning while ridging back
into IL. A persistent east to NE flow over CWA during mid/late
week to cool temps slightly and still in the low to mid 80s
overall from Wed through next Saturday. Areas east and ne of
central IL will likely see more cooling from this strong high
pressure system.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine northeast of eastern Cuba is
forecast to becoming a tropical storm or hurricane as it tracks
NNW approaching the Carolina and southeast Atlantic coastal
region by midweek. Most deterministic forecast model members and
their ensembles keep qpf well southeast of IL through much of next
week.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 Day Outlook for Oct 4-10th
has a 55-60% chance of above normal temperatures, and a 33-40%
chance of below normal precipitation over central and southeast
IL. CPC`s 3-4 week outlook for Oct 11-24th (issued on Fri/Sep 26)
has a 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures over central and
southeast IL, with a 50-55% chance of above normal temps nw of the
IL river. It also shows a 33-40% chance of below normal precipitation
over central and southern IL, and trending near normal over
northern IL. So the dry and mild pattern may likely continue for a
few more weeks, and this could exacerbate ongoing drought conditions
and field fire risks during the harvest season that began a few
weeks ago.
07
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs with clear
skies and light winds.
Auten
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Record high temperatures for Sunday through Tuesday:
Location      Saturday    Sunday     Monday    Tuesday  Wednesday
--------      -------- --------- ---------- ----------  ---------
Bloomington  94 (1905) 94 (1953) 100 (1953)  98 (1953)  92 (1897)
Champaign    92 (1891) 94 (1953)  99 (1953)  91 (1971)  92 (1897)
Charleston   92 (1998) 94 (1953)  99 (1953)  92 (1933)  94 (2019)
Decatur      93 (1954) 96 (1953) 100 (1953)  94 (1922)  93 (1897)
Lincoln      92 (1954) 96 (1953) 101 (1953)  93 (1952)  91 (2019)
Olney        92 (2017) 97 (1939) 101 (1953)  93 (1952)  94 (1952)
Peoria       89 (2021) 92 (1939)  98 (1953)  91 (1933)  89 (1937)
Springfield  91 (2021) 94 (1953) 100 (1953)  92 (1971)  91 (2019)
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion