Carnes, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

201
FXUS64 KJAN 121918
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
218 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Tonight and Saturday: Warmer than normal temperatures and dry
weather will continue through Saturday. Our CWA will become beneath
a large 592dam ridge that is part of the omega block centered over
the CONUS. Surface analysis had a 1018mb ridge oriented northeast to
southwest across our CWA. This ridge will change very little through
Saturday. The combined ridging surface and aloft will help maintain
the warmer than normal temperatures across our region with highs
Saturday topping out in the low to mid 90s again. Our normal highs
run in the upper 80s. Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid
60s northeast to the lower 70s southwest. Our normal lows run in the
mid 60s. /22/
Not much to talk about in the long term period. Weather conditions
will remain relatively quiet across our entire forecast area
Saturday night through the rest of the weekend as global guidance
from both the GFS and the Euro continue to show the omega block
pattern over the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure
centered over the eastern U.S. will help reinforce dry flow into the
southeast region into the lower levels. This dry pattern will result
in afternoon highs peaking into the mid to upper 90s areawide. HREF
guidance is still showing low probabilities (around 10-20%) of
patchy fog development across portions of southeast MS by early
Sunday morning. Confidence is too low to introduce any fog graphics
at this time, however shallow fog will be possible around dawn.
Late-summer hot and dry conditions will continue across our CWA
through the mid week with no rain in the forecast for the long term
period. Regarding the concerns for fire wx, RHs will drop to around
35-40% across much of our forecast area through the late week.
Meanwhile, areas across the NW Delta, including portions of
southeast AR, could see RHs drop below 30% which could cause some
low-end fire weather concerns. RHs values will continue to be
monitored as we get through the mid/late week. Dry and quiet
conditions will persist heading into Friday. /CR/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
VFR conditions with light winds will prevail through the period.
/86/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  93  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      65  92  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     69  95  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   67  94  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       69  94  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    69  96  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     68  96  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
22/CR/22

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion