Carpenter, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

493
FXUS64 KJAN 122346 AAA
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
646 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Updated short-term weather elements through Saturday afternoon,
but no major adjustments were needed. A few very isolated showers
and even a brief thunderstorm or two were able to develop in the
sub-1.5 PWAT air mass today which is impressive. HRRR and other
hi-res models suggest the moisture will be lower still tomorrow,
but wouldn`t be entirely surprised at a few showers or a storm
mainly over our Louisiana parishes tomorrow afternoon. /NF/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Tonight and Saturday: Warmer than normal temperatures and dry
weather will continue through Saturday. Our CWA will become beneath
a large 592dam ridge that is part of the omega block centered over
the CONUS. Surface analysis had a 1018mb ridge oriented northeast to
southwest across our CWA. This ridge will change very little through
Saturday. The combined ridging surface and aloft will help maintain
the warmer than normal temperatures across our region with highs
Saturday topping out in the low to mid 90s again. Our normal highs
run in the upper 80s. Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid
60s northeast to the lower 70s southwest. Our normal lows run in the
mid 60s. /22/
Not much to talk about in the long term period. Weather conditions
will remain relatively quiet across our entire forecast area
Saturday night through the rest of the weekend as global guidance
from both the GFS and the Euro continue to show the omega block
pattern over the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure
centered over the eastern U.S. will help reinforce dry flow into the
southeast region into the lower levels. This dry pattern will result
in afternoon highs peaking into the mid to upper 90s areawide. HREF
guidance is still showing low probabilities (around 10-20%) of
patchy fog development across portions of southeast MS by early
Sunday morning. Confidence is too low to introduce any fog graphics
at this time, however shallow fog will be possible around dawn.
Late-summer hot and dry conditions will continue across our CWA
through the mid week with no rain in the forecast for the long term
period. Regarding the concerns for fire wx, RHs will drop to around
35-40% across much of our forecast area through the late week.
Meanwhile, areas across the NW Delta, including portions of
southeast AR, could see RHs drop below 30% which could cause some
low-end fire weather concerns. RHs values will continue to be
monitored as we get through the mid/late week. Dry and quiet
conditions will persist heading into Friday. /CR/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Very isolated SHRA were impacting parts of the forecast area at
the start of the period, but confidence in impacts to any
particular TAF site were too low to mention at this time. VFR
conditions expected to prevail through the period at all sites.
/NF/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  93  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      66  92  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     69  94  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   67  94  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       69  94  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    69  96  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     69  95  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
NF/CR

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion