Carterville, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

534
FXUS63 KSGF 081930
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
230 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry weather continues through at least this week.
  Extended model guidance suggests below-average precipitation
  may continue well into the month of September.
- There is high confidence that above-average temperatures will
  return by the middle of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The Ozarks remains under the influence of surface high pressure
with some high clods streaming over portions of the region from
an MCS moving across central Kansas. The MCS was associated
with middle and upper level shortwave energy moving across the
plains. Synoptic models struggle to get this energy very far
east but some of this activity may approach the western fringes
of our CWA, far southeastern Kansas and the i-49 corridor, this
evening into Tuesday morning. However, the dry airmass over most
of the region will prevent it from making it very far into the
Ozarks.
The latest HREF probabilities of locations measuring at least
0.10" of rainfall that way are in the 20-30% range.
Probabilities of receiving a quarter inch are 25% or less.
Overnight lows are expected to fall into the middle 50s, west of
Highway 65, to middle 40s east of Highway 65 with areas having
more cloud cover overnight staying on the warmer side.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Synoptic models continue to show upper-level ridging moving over
the central CONUS during the middle to end of the week which
should keep the Missouri Ozarks in a dry and warm pattern.
Forecast 850 mb temperatures in the 20 to 22 C range are above
the 90th percentile of climatology and typically correlate to
surface temperatures near 90 F. This is supported in the NBM
data with forecast temperature spreads through the end of the
week with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. For reference,
climatological average high temperatures for this time of year
are in the 80 to 84 degree range. These warm temperatures
combined with the lack of meaningful rainfall may exacerbate
drought expansion across the region. additionally, ECMWF and
GEFS extended runs suggest below-average precipitation anomalies
continuing well into the month of September.
The pattern may change as we head into the weekend as most
ensemble members begin to show a larger spread of solutions for
the weekend. Most of the ensemble members keep ridging over the
region significantly limiting rain. However, some of the runs
(30%) are more progressive moving a shortwave into the region
that could bring some limited rain chances. For now, NBM PoPs
in our area remain low through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
High pressure over the area will be in control of the regions
weather over the next 24 hours. This will allow for VFR flight
conditions and generally light southerly surface winds.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion