Cebolla, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

400
FXUS65 KABQ 290709
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
109 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon
  along and east of the Continental Divide. Storm coverage will
  not be as numerous as over the weekend. However, storms around
  the Ruidoso area may produce flash flooding due to heavy
  rainfall.
- The end of the monsoon looks to be on schedule. Though isolated
  storms may develop Tuesday afternoon, most areas will remain
  dry. Thereafter, dry and warmer conditions are expected
  Wednesday through Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Showers and thunderstorms are dwindling early this morning across
central NM and this trend should continue overnight.
The upper level trough will continue to dampen as it crosses NM on
Monday. Though drier air will begin to filter into NM behind it,
there will remain enough moisture and lift for scattered showers
and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Given
storm coverage will not be as high as yesterday, the threat for
heavy rainfall and repeated rounds of thunderstorms is much lower,
but is not zero. CAMs continue to depict the heaviest rainfall
impacting the Central Mountain Chain, including the Ruidoso area.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the Ruidoso area this
afternoon, though if heavy rainfall occurs again on one of the
areas that were highly impacted yesterday, additional flooding may
occur. Storms should follow a more normal diurnal trend today,
and diminish around or shortly after sunset.
Drier air aloft will continue to filter into NM on Tuesday, though
a weak ripple in increasing zonal flow aloft should spark a few
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two over the high terrain.
PWATs will be tumbling below 0.70" by the afternoon, so any storms
that develop should be quick-hitting with low impact. Otherwise,
the lack of precipitation will allow temperatures to climb on the
order of 5 degrees from today`s readings.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 100 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Any storms that develop Tuesday will diminish quickly Tuesday
evening. Thereafter, the drier air aloft will continue to filter
into NM through at least Thursday. Upper level ridging on Wed and
Thu will keep all areas dry. Temperatures will continue to climb
a few degrees each day as well. On Friday, the upper level ridge
will shift eastward as a Pacific storm system dives into the Great
Basin. There is model disagreement regarding how far south the
upper low dives, then also how quickly the system shifts eastward
over the weekend. Regardless of the timing details, the system
looks like it will have little impact on NM weather as it weakens
into an open wave as it crosses the state. There may be a few
showers and storms, mainly across northern NM, as well as an
increase in afternoon wind speeds Friday and Saturday. After the
wave crosses NM Fri or Sat, it appears much drier air will again
filter into NM behind it for Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The remaining showers and thunderstorms across central NM are
decreasing in coverage and intensity, and this trend should
generally continue. Given all of the rainfall Sunday, there are
low chances of patchy fog developing across the Rio Grande Valley
and portions of eastern NM this morning. However, there is too
much uncertainty in timing and occurrence to include in any TAF
(sans KROW) attm. However, the higher clouds moving over KROW may
keep low clouds/fog from forming as well. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon from the
Continental Divide eastward. Storm coverage will not be as great
as yesterday, but brief MVFR cigs/vsbys remain possible in the
stronger storms. Storms should diminish around or shortly after
sunset Monday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again this
afternoon along and east of the Continental Divide, though most
storms will favor the Central Mountain Chain. Storms will move
toward the northeast around 5 to 15 mph today. Brief heavy
rainfall and gusty winds will again be a concern with today`s
storms, but this looks to be the last day of appreciable rainfall
chances for this monsoon. On Tuesday, isolated showers and storms
may develop across the high terrain, but precipitation will be
spotty at best. Upper level ridging and much drier air will
dominant the area Wed and Thu. Another storm system looks to pass
across NM Friday and Saturday with little fanfare. A few storms
may develop across northern NM, while afternoon breezes will
increase areawide. Southwest wind gusts between 15 and 25 mph
should be common Fri and Sat aftns across the high terrain and
much of eastern NM. Dry conditions return for Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  73  52  74  54 /  40  40   5   5
Dulce...........................  71  40  72  40 /  60  30  30  10
Cuba............................  70  44  69  46 /  70  60  30  10
Gallup..........................  72  42  72  45 /  40  30  10   5
El Morro........................  67  43  69  45 /  50  40  20   5
Grants..........................  66  44  71  46 /  60  50  20   5
Quemado.........................  73  44  72  45 /  30  20  10   5
Magdalena.......................  65  49  69  50 /  70  50  40  10
Datil...........................  68  45  68  46 /  50  30  30  10
Reserve.........................  75  44  77  45 /  20  10  10   5
Glenwood........................  81  49  80  50 /  20  10  10   5
Chama...........................  64  39  66  39 /  60  30  40  10
Los Alamos......................  67  48  68  49 /  70  50  50  20
Pecos...........................  66  45  68  45 /  70  60  50  30
Cerro/Questa....................  67  44  69  44 /  60  20  40  10
Red River.......................  60  37  60  37 /  60  20  50  10
Angel Fire......................  65  31  63  31 /  60  20  50  20
Taos............................  70  43  72  42 /  60  30  40  20
Mora............................  67  41  65  40 /  60  40  50  20
Espanola........................  73  49  75  49 /  60  60  40  20
Santa Fe........................  67  49  69  50 /  70  60  50  20
Santa Fe Airport................  70  46  72  49 /  70  60  40  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  71  54  74  58 /  70  70  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  76  52  76  55 /  70  70  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  77  52  78  55 /  70  60  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  76  54  76  57 /  70  70  30  10
Belen...........................  76  52  77  52 /  70  60  30  10
Bernalillo......................  75  52  77  55 /  70  70  30  20
Bosque Farms....................  75  50  77  52 /  70  60  30  20
Corrales........................  75  53  78  56 /  70  70  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  75  52  77  53 /  70  60  30  20
Placitas........................  70  51  72  53 /  70  70  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  74  53  77  56 /  70  70  30  10
Socorro.........................  76  54  77  55 /  70  60  40  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  64  46  69  48 /  70  60  40  20
Tijeras.........................  68  48  70  50 /  70  60  40  20
Edgewood........................  66  45  70  46 /  70  50  40  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  70  44  72  44 /  70  50  40  20
Clines Corners..................  65  46  66  46 /  70  50  50  20
Mountainair.....................  69  47  71  47 /  70  70  50  20
Gran Quivira....................  65  47  69  46 /  70  70  60  20
Carrizozo.......................  68  52  71  50 /  70  50  60  20
Ruidoso.........................  62  48  63  46 /  80  60  80  20
Capulin.........................  67  46  68  44 /  30  10  30  20
Raton...........................  70  46  72  43 /  40  10  40  20
Springer........................  74  46  73  44 /  40  10  40  20
Las Vegas.......................  67  45  67  44 /  60  40  60  30
Clayton.........................  78  53  75  52 /  10   5  20  10
Roy.............................  71  49  70  47 /  30  20  40  20
Conchas.........................  77  54  77  50 /  30  30  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  70  51  72  49 /  50  40  40  20
Tucumcari.......................  81  52  74  50 /  20  20  20  10
Clovis..........................  78  57  77  54 /  20  20  20  10
Portales........................  79  56  77  53 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  74  55  74  52 /  60  40  20  20
Roswell.........................  73  59  76  54 /  80  50  30  10
Picacho.........................  68  53  71  49 /  90  60  60  20
Elk.............................  66  49  69  46 /  90  60  60  10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch Monday afternoon for NMZ226.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion