Cedar Hammock, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

340
FXUS62 KTBW 050633
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
233 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
- Gusty marine winds of 20 to 30 knots will continue to cause
   dangerous conditions for small craft from Englewood northward
   through the week. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect
   through Tuesday morning for these waters.
- Periods of gusty marine winds of 15 to 20 knots will continue
   south of Englewood, where small craft should continue to
   exercise caution. The strongest winds will occur in the
   evening and overnight.
- There will be little change in overall weather conditions
   through the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
   forecast each afternoon/evening as breezy easterly winds
   continue over land.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
The pattern is beginning to amplify across the E CONUS. An upper-
level ridge and surface high pressure center have become vertically
stacked along the Mid-Atlantic coast. This is happening as a broad
upper-level low tries to organize, creating an area of surface low
pressure, along the western periphery of a stationary boundary in
the region of the Central Gulf Coast. However, a digging trough
axis is approaching from the west. This suggests that the low will
be sheared, stretched out, and ultimately will be absorbed by the
stronger and more dominant trough. This will allow the upper-
level ridge to spread out and become dominant once again across
the SE CONUS by mid-week.
Eventually, as the trough axis propagates east, it will push the
ridge axis farther south, allowing it to stretch across the Gulf
Coast region and gradually retrograde westward. This upper-level
pattern looks to hold until the end of the work week, when an upper-
level low, taking advantage of the increasingly weak ridging can
begin to intensify and dive southward into the vicinity of Florida
next weekend. This fascinating dynamic upper-level pattern will of
course ultimately drive the conditions we experience at the surface.
However, this gradually evolving upper-level setup does not actually
favor very dramatic change at the surface. On the contrary, it
actually largely favors the status quo.
Strong surface ridging remains off the Mid-Atlantic coast through
the week ahead as the surface high remains in control. From southern
Florida all the way up the coastline through North Carolina, there
is a fairly strong pressure gradient; and with air flowing
clockwise around the surface high, this means that a breezy
easterly flow will persist through the week. The broader synoptic
pattern over the Caribbean also continues to feed tropical
moisture northward from the ITCZ region. Thus, moisture will
remain sufficient to support scattered storms across the region
each day, moving from east to west. These storms will be most
likely during the afternoon time-frame when daytime heating
maximizes the instability. Some slightly drier air mid-week favors
slightly lower coverage for the second half of the week.
This will continue with little change through into next weekend.
The only point of note is that the surface high will keep slowly
propagating farther east, and thus the gradient will gradually
relax. However, the gradient will once again tighten as the upper-
level low and associated surface front approach next weekend. The
direction probably won`t change much, though, until the front
pushes through. Even then, it`s likely to only back to the NE.
Additionally, the approaching front could favor enhanced rain
chances over the weekend - but opted for a conservative approach
for now given the uncertainty this far out.
So the summary of the forecast: more of the same. Mornings and
evenings will be fairly nice and breezy. The afternoon will still be
warm and humid, but scattered quick-passing showers and
thunderstorms should provide relief to some. Marine conditions will
generally remain poor for mariners in small craft.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Gusty easterly winds and thunderstorms are the primary impacts
today, with the window of highest impacts in the late afternoon and
evening. There is about a 50% chance that wind gusts could be higher
than 25kts at TPA, PIE and SRQ - but only about a 5% chance that
they will be higher than 30kts. Unlike the last couple days, the
deeper moisture and instability favors a higher potential for
thunderstorms; thus have opted to replace VCSH with VCTS for coastal
terminals. The earlier convective timing across the interior makes
that still too uncertain for mention at KLAL. Thunderstorms will
approach from the east and move west. While the winds may weaken
somewhat during the work week ahead, the overall pattern remains
pretty similar. Thus, a similar setup will play out each day this
week with some gusty winds through the day and thunderstorms each
afternoon/evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
While winds are beginning to lay down across southern waters,
showers and thunderstorms continue to persist mainly in offshore
waters as a weak boundary lifts northward. For central waters
including Tampa Bay and northern waters, gusty winds will continue
to create dangerous conditions for small craft over the next
several days. Additionally, all waters will likely see showers
and thunderstorms again late this evening and overnight as storms
forming over land continue to move west into the Gulf. Winds will
also increase as these storms approach. Little change is expected
through mid-week. Thus a similar setup is expected each day.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Gusty easterly winds will continue to favor some higher dispersions,
especially across Central Florida and the Nature Coast. Thunderstorms
are also expected this afternoon and may linger into the evening
before moving offshore. Plenty of moisture will remain to keep RH
values elevated. This pattern will repeat through the week. Thus,
no significant fire weather concerns exist at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  76  90  76 /  40  20  40  10
FMY  90  75  89  75 /  40  20  50  20
GIF  88  75  88  75 /  50  20  60  20
SRQ  91  74  90  74 /  40  20  40  10
BKV  88  72  88  73 /  50  20  50  10
SPG  87  76  87  76 /  40  20  40  10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Flannery

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion