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Cedar Springs, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

258
FXUS62 KTAE 211733
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 133 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Surface high pressure will be extending further south from the northeast. Dry air will continue to filter into the region today and tomorrow along with light easterly flow. The atmosphere will be stable for most of the region however, our western most counties might have just enough instability to squeeze out a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon/evening before sunset with PoPs around 20-30 percent for the AL wiregrass and FL Panhandle. PoPs chances decrease for Monday as mid-level ridging and the surface high is overhead. Overnight tonight, there is a chance for patchy fog to develop near the I-75 corridor. Temperatures today and Monday will be in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees along the immediate coast.

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.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Status quo for the start of the short term with the surface high keeping the region warm and dry for several days. There will be another chance for fog development along and near I-75 on Tuesday morning before dry air filters in again from the east/northeast. There will be an upper level trough over the region but, any factors that could contribute to shower/thunderstorm development will remain south and east of the area. Our next best chance for rain approaches with a cold front late Thursday into Friday. The cold front will be ahead of an upper level trough covering the eastern third of the CONUS. The front will bring temperatures down to the mid and upper 80s late in the work week with overnight lows falling to the low and mid 60s. The expected rain will be beneficial, however not expecting to be much in accumulation. It appears to be half an inch to 1 inch of rainfall through the event; not enough to have any real impact on the onset of drought conditions in the area. Following this frontal system, dry conditions appear to return for the end of the weekend heading into the next work week.

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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours. An isolated TSRA or two is possible this afternoon near ECP where Cu development is noted. A PROB30 group was introduced for this possibility in this cycle. TSRA looks to stay west of DHN based on latest model guidance. Some MVFR fog is possible near VLD early Monday morning and have included a TEMPO for this possibility.

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.MARINE... Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Winds are easterly today as high pressure shifts eastward over the Appalachians. Winds for the most part will remain light to gentle, though some moderate easterly surges are possible, mainly tonight and again on Monday night. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet. Winds become more southerly to southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front late in the upcoming week with an increased chance for scattered showers and storms. Despite the approaching front later this week, winds and seas should likely remain below cautionary levels.

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.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

High pressure at the surface will hold over the region for the next few days. Dry conditions are expected for the next several days with warm temperatures in the 90s. Minimum relative humidity values will be in the mid-30s increasing to the mid-40s as we start the work week. Transport winds will be light around 5-10 mph from the east. Along the Emerald coast, the winds will shift southerly during the afternoon hours, however the sea breeze is not expected to affect the more inland districts. Dispersions for the period will be high on Sunday (today) for areas along the I-75 corridor. Fair to Moderate dispersions are expected for Monday & Tuesday. High dispersions will be possible for the Alabama wiregrass on Wednesday.

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.HYDROLOGY... Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Any rainfall that falls over the next 5 days will be very isolated and rather light. Mid to late next week, better rain chances return, but rain amounts vary significantly. Regardless, at this point it doesn`t appear that this will be a drought- busting rain event with most likely totals being around 0.25 to 0.75 inches. The high end rainfall totals are around 1-1.25 inches, which is still not quite enough to alleviate the drought. And there`s a low-end possibility that we miss most of the rain with the 10th percentile rainfall around a tenth of an inch.

Given the very hot temperatures, lower humidity, and general lack of appreciable rainfall, drought conditions continue to worsen across the area, in some cases, rapidly. Until a good soaking rain occurs, drought conditions will keep worsening as we enter our driest months climatologically.

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.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 91 70 93 / 0 10 0 10 Panama City 72 90 72 90 / 0 10 0 10 Dothan 68 92 68 93 / 0 10 0 0 Albany 68 92 68 93 / 0 10 0 0 Valdosta 68 89 69 93 / 0 20 0 10 Cross City 68 91 70 93 / 0 20 10 30 Apalachicola 74 85 72 87 / 0 10 10 10

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.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. &&

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NEAR TERM...Montgomery SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...Young MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Dobbs

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion

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