Chapman, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

159
FXUS61 KCAR 151827
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
227 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area into tonight then slide
south of the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front will
approach Thursday and cross the region Thursday night into
Friday. High pressure will build in from the west later Friday
into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Not much of note to discuss weather- wise through Tuesday night
with high pressure dominating the synoptic pattern. Maine will
be mostly under the center of the surface high, with a col in
the upper level flow, so overall winds will remain calm. Some
diurnal gusts can be expected in the afternoon, but temperatures
will remain in the mid to upper 70s during the day. Overnight
lows will be close to normal as well, in the low 40s to mid 50s.
Calm winds will allow surface fog to form again overnight,
mainly along river valleys. This should burn off by early
Tuesday morning and redeveloping late Tuesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through the middle of the week,
with southwesterly return flow advecting warm air into the
region and leading to temperatures soaring well above average.
Highs will lift into the mid to upper 70s, potentially making a
run for 80, Wednesday afternoon across much of the forecast
area. Under persistent high pressure and relatively light winds,
a sea breeze may allow for temperatures to remain slightly
cooler near the coast.
Patchy fog could develop Wednesday night with mostly clear skies
overhead and efficient radiational cooling overnight leading to
lows in the lower 50s. That said, limited surface moisture will
prevent fog from becoming more widespread.
The next system will begin to approach during the day on
Thursday, with mid level moisture leading to a gradual increase
in cloud cover through the day from southwest to northeast. Warm
temperatures will continue through Thursday, though with
increasing cloud cover, temperatures will remain similar to what
they were on Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will cross through the area Thursday night into
Friday. Recent model guidance has suggested a slight weakening
trend with this front, though winds will still increase behind
the boundary passage with the increased horizontal pressure
gradient between the departing low pressure and building high
pressure to the northwest. Wind gusts could increase to around
25 mph Friday afternoon. The chance for a wetting rain with this
event is low, although some areas in the north may receive
showers which produce at least a tenth of an inch of rain.
Relative humidity will drop through the end of the week, though
any showers that do develop could limit how quickly dew points
fall behind the frontal passage.
High pressure will return this weekend, leading to a return of
clear skies. Temperatures may be slightly below average on
Saturday due to the recent cold front, but will rebound to
around normal Sunday into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR during the day, with overnight fog developing
primarily at northern sites. Fog may reduce visibility to IFR or
LIFR, but should burn off by 12Z or shortly before.
SHORT TERM:
Wed - Thurs: VFR across all terminals. Brief IFR/LIFR fog
possible Wed and Thurs mornings. SW winds 5 to 10 kts each
afternoon, becoming light and variable Wed night.
Thurs night - Fri: Mainly VFR across all terminals, though
Aroostook terminals could become MVFR for a few hours in lower
cigs and possible rain showers Thurs night into early Fri
morning. Winds shifting NW and increasing to 10 to 15 kts with
gusts 20 to 25 kts.
Fri night - Sat: VFR across all terminals. NW winds 5 to 10
kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft
advisory criteria through the near term.
SHORT TERM: Light winds and seas 1 to 3 ft will continue Wed
through Fri. Winds will begin to increase behind a frontal
passage Fri into Fri night, with offshore gusts approaching 20
kts Fri night into early Sat morning. Conditions will improve
through the rest of the weekend. Patchy fog could limit
visibility Wed into Thurs.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...LF
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...LF/AStrauser
Marine...LF/AStrauser

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion