Check, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

264
FXUS61 KRNK 091824
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
224 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A period of tranquil early autumn weather is expected for the
remainder of the week as a strong high pressure system settles
over the region. Clouds may creep into parts of the piedmont
from a disturbance along the coast, but overall, expecting a
period of comfortable weather with mild afternoon temperatures
and a notable cool crisp feel to the air during the early
mornings.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1) Pleasant weather continues
Pattern features a 5h trough axis over the lower Ohio Valley
into the Deep South, with southerly flow aloft while at the
surface, high pressure wedges southward from New England associated
with a cool northeast wind. Overall expecting fair dry weather.
Only caveat is layer of low-mid level cloudiness that is
forecast to creep westward from the coast and into our piedmont
counties overnight and lingering through the day Wednesday. This
may impact temperatures for areas east of Highway 29 keeping
the highs a little cooler compared to areas farther west that
are expecting another day of full sunshine. In general,
temperatures will be cooler than normal areawide in-spite of
the sunshine...so another night-daytime cycle of pleasant
autumn weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1. Dry and quiet weather with seasonal temperatures.
Surface high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature
through this forecast period, which will keep a prolonged period of
dry weather in the forecast for the area. A 500mb trough over the
eastern US will promote northwest to westerly flow aloft, and
temperatures will be cool through the middle of the week. Subsidence
via the high will suppress any chances for precipitation. Flow at
the surface will transition to more northeast and easterly Thursday
as the center of the high shifts east, and may transport some
moisture off the Atlantic, and could see some lower clouds develop
in the Piedmont. For the most part, dry air throughout most of the
atmosphere will keep even cloud cover at a minimum, aside from
passing high clouds from a front stalled to the south and east of
the area, along the eastern seaboard. That front will be pushed
eastward by another high pressure system originating in
southern Canada by the end of the work week.
Temperatures will be near normal through the period, with highs in
the mid 70s in the west, and low 80s in the east. Overnight will be
up to 5 degrees below normal, in the low 50s. Went on the lower end
of guidance for lows Thursday morning, with high pressure overhead
and good radiational cooling.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1. Dry weather, temperatures start trending a few degrees above
normal.
The stretch of dry weather and seasonal temperatures continues into
at least the beginning of the next work week. Surface high pressure
will remain wedged against the eastern side of the mountains through
most of the weekend. Aloft, a 500mb ridge builds over the south
central US and the trough over the eastern US starts to get squeezed
farther east, but still remains in the area. Long range guidance
does start to diverge during the weekend, with low pressure setting
up off the east coast and shortwave energy rounding the base of the
trough Saturday. However, with a lack of sufficient moisture in
place, confidence is high that the forecast will remain dry.
Temperatures will trend up a few degrees by the weekend, and highs
will reach up to 7 degrees above normal, generally in the low 80s in
the east and mid 70s in the west. Lows will be right around normal,
to a few degrees above, mainly in the 50s areawide.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...
Expecting mostly VFR through the valid 24 hour TAF period. Other
than some early morning fog near LWB and just west of BCB,
weather is expected to remain benign. There is a layer of low-
mid cloudiness that has moved inland from the coast. Models
suggest this cloud layer will move as far west as LYH/DAN before
daybreak Wednesday...bases between 3000-7000kft.
Winds will be from an ENE direction with some gusts up to 18
kts vcnty of LYH/DAN this afternoon, weakening after 22z.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR conditions expected through the week, outside any patchy
late night/early morning mountain valley fog, and coastal cloud
creep into the piedmont.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PM

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion