Chenoa, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

833
FXUS63 KJKL 241458
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1058 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms today and tonight will
  bring heavy rainfall. This rain could lead to isolated flash
  flooding, especially where storms repeatedly move over the same
  areas.
- A few thunderstorms could become strong this afternoon and
  evening, with gusty winds as the primary concern.
- Periods of showers will continue Thursday. A low chance for
  rain will then linger through the weekend with continued mild
  temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1058 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2025
No major changes made to the grids. Only minor tweaks based on the
latest surface observations and latest radar trends. Late morning
text and radio products have been updated to reflect the changes.
Grids have been saved and sent to NDFD servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2025
At 850z, regional radar shows a band of weakening convection
lifting over far east Kentucky. This activity is associated with
a subtle shortwave perturbation and vorticity maximum aloft, but
it is weakening as it moves into an increasingly stable
environment. Other disturbances are noted aloft streaming from the
parent positively-tilted 500 hPa trough extending from Southern
Quebec southwest into the Southern Rockies. These pockets of
energy are forcing much of the disorganized convection to our west
and southwest over Kentucky and Tennessee. A weak ~1012 mb
surface low is developing over northeast Texas ahead of the
aforementioned trough and is tracking northeast along a wavy
frontal zone stretching to Detroit and then off Cape Cod.
The main story during the short term will be rounds of showers
and thunderstorms as the 500 hPa trough translates eastward and
the primary surface low tracks northeast today into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley, across Kentucky tonight, and into the
Northeast U.S. on Thursday. This system will drag the wavy front
toward the northwestern portion of the forecast area by Thursday
morning. However, that front`s progress will be slowed by
another, weaker surface wave developing along the boundary just
ahead of the 500 hPa parent trough axis. Thus, passage of the cold
front over eastern Kentucky is delayed until Thursday evening. A
modest southerly fetch will promote PWATs rising to between 1.6
and 1.9 inches today. This moisture, combined with skinny CAPE
profiles (500 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE) and a deep warm cloud layer,
will be supportive of heavy rainfall rates. Tropospheric flow is
strong enough to support progressive cell motions (~25 to 30 kts),
which should limit the overall flash flooding threat. However, a
nearly unidirectional deep-layer flow parallel to the baroclinic
zone to our northwest could aid in training convection. General
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely through 12Z Thursday.
However, some locales may only receive a few tenths of an inch,
while others could see over 3 inches where training occurs. Recent
CAM guidance has been consistently generating the highest
rainfall totals over the northwestern third of our forecast area,
where drought conditions are ongoing, though some models have
suggested a second maximum over southeastern Kentucky. The Weather
Prediction Center (WPC) has maintained a Slight Risk in their
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) for isolated to scattered flash
flooding. Trends will be monitored for any potential need for a
Flood Watch. A threat also exists for a few stronger thunderstorms,
with gusty winds as the primary concern. Otherwise, looking ahead
to Thursday, the better moisture will depart with the exiting low
pressure. However, a vorticity lobe in the base of the
approaching trough axis and convergence near the cold front will
aid in the development of scattered to numerous showers and
possible thunderstorms. Dry mid-level air and meager CAPE
profiles will tend to limit convective vigor and rainfall rates on
Thursday.
In terms of sensible weather, expect rounds of showers and
thunderstorms interspersed with breaks of sunshine and periods of
dry time. The most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected through midday across all of eastern Kentucky. This
afternoon and evening, activity will be most focused in counties
along and north of the I-64 corridor. Another widespread round of
organized showers and storms can be expected overnight. More
sporadic, diurnally-modulated showers and possible thunderstorm
activity are anticipated for Thursday. Temperatures will be mild
with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 both today and Thursday while
overnight lows remain in the 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 550 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2025
The long-term period opens Thursday evening with a high-amplitude
trough extending from the Ottawa Valley SSW across the Mid-
Mississippi Valley and further southwest to Texas. An associated
wavy frontal boundary resides just east of the trough axis from
near Montreal along the western slopes of the Appalachians to
along the western Gulf Coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are likely to be ongoing over eastern Kentucky at that time.
For Thursday night and Friday, the trough is favored to close off
into an upper low near or over Middle Tennessee. While the cold
front will finally depart to our east by Friday morning, lingering
moisture and weak lift near the upper low should favor a
diurnally-modulated threat of showers (~20-30% chance) on Friday.
The latest guidance increasingly favors the closed low very
slowly weakening and moving northeast to near or over southwest
Virginia by late Monday. At that point there is substantial
spread as to what happens next, whether the low is captured by a
tropical system passing close to the Atlantic Coast, continues to
meander, or something different altogether. The primary
consequence of this system`s close proximity will be variable
amounts of cloud cover and the continued, generally low-end chance
of showers each day. There could be enough instability from
Saturday on through Tuesday for a few thunderstorms as well.
Temperatures will remain mild, with highs in the 70s to around
80F and lows in the 50s to near 60F.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2025
While many locations outside of ongoing scattered convection are
still VFR at TAF issuance, anticipate worsening conditions for
most through the remainder of the morning as clusters of showers
and thunderstorms move through ahead of an approaching low
pressure system. This activity coupled with low ceilings will lead
to LIFR, IFR, and MVFR conditions at times. Some improvement is
possible late in the afternoon, especially southeast of I-64 this
afternoon (storm activity is favored to be more persistent toward
KSYM) but anticipate worsening conditions area wide when the low
pressure storm system passes over the Lower Ohio Valley. Generally
light, variable winds will become southerly at 5 to 10 kts this
morning; however, gusty and erratic winds could accompany any
thunderstorm.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion