Chiselville, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

743
FXUS61 KALY 100600
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Pleasant conditions persist regionwide through Saturday evening,
though clouds will increase from south to north today with a low
probability for southern areas to get a stray shower or two
resulting from a wave of low pressure moving north and east
along the East Coast. The next chance for some much needed rain
will fall to Saturday night into Sunday and possibly Monday,
though confidence in the details remains low due to forecast
uncertainty.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The core of yesterday`s surface high has departed to the north
and east, its outer reaches extending south and west across
eastern New York and western New England being squeezed between
a surface low to the northwest and one to the southeast. Dry
conditions therefore persist across the region with a thin layer
of high-level cirrus drifting northward ahead of the wave of low
pressure just off the Carolinas. Modest ridging and associated
increased temperatures aloft have maintained more mild
temperatures in comparison to last night so frost concerns have
been mitigated.
As the coastal wave of low pressure makes progress north and
eastward throughout the morning, it is possible that isolated
showers track into the lower Mid-Hudson Valley, southeast
Catskills, and southern Litchfield County. With little in the
way of support for vertical ascent, in addition to
counteracting subsidence and very dry antecedent conditions,
any rain that reaches the ground will fall at light rates and
will not be long lasting. Therefore, the most notable impact
from this wave will be the increase in cloud cover across much
of the region in comparison to recent days.
A weak cold front will then approach the region from the
northwest tonight, attending a low pressure system sliding
across Quebec. Despite weak forcing from the associated
shortwave that will rotate through our CWA along with it, this
system is attributed with a moisture-starved airmass so
conditions will remain dry. Therefore the only impact from this
feature will be the increase in sustained and gust speeds
Thursday, especially throughout the Hudson Valley where
northerly flow will downslope off the Adirondacks and channel
southward. Sustained wind speeds will reach about 10 mph with
15 mph gusts by Thursday afternoon.
The front clears the region by Friday morning, yielding high
pressure building southward from Quebec. A continuation of dry
conditions through Saturday can therefore be expected as the
surface anticyclone dominates and flat ridging develops aloft.
By Saturday night, chances for precipitation increase from
northwest to southeast in the face of a low pressure system and
its associated positively-tiled trough encroaching from the
northwest. Despite the continued uncertainty in the model
depiction of this system, confidence is slowly beginning to
increase that much of the area could see at least measurable
precipitation Saturday night through Sunday. NBM 01z
probabilities are now about 50% throughout our whole CWA for at
least 0.01" of rain during this time. Given our lack of rain
recently, this certainly won`t do much to put a dent in our
deficit. However, depending on the evolution of this and a
potential second system being resolved by some medium-range
models, it`s possible that we could get more rain than is
currently projected (~0.05" to 0.15") by the NBM. Will continue
to monitor the guidance in the coming days to iron out the
details, but again with the dry pattern we have been in, no
hydro issues are expected.
Today will be one of the chillier days over the next week with
more extensive cloud cover reducing direct radiation. Expect
values in the mid to upper 60s, especially in the Catskills,
Mid-Hudson Valley, and western New England where skies will be
most covered, to mid 70s. Lows tonight will be primarily in the
40s. Tomorrow will conversely be the warmest day of the period
with upper 60s to upper 70s and possibly some pockets near 80 in
the Hudson Valley. Lows will be in the upper 30s to low 50s.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will see highs that are fairly
similar with upper 60s to mid/upper 70s. A slight cooling trend
will see highs back in the mid/upper 60s to mid 70s Monday
before highs Tuesday rise back to the upper 60s to upper 70s.
Lows Friday night through Tuesday night will be in the 40s and
50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z Thursday...Main forecast challenge is fog potential
through the early morning hours. KGFL has already seen occasional
IFR/LIFR so will continue to mention until around 11z-12z. With an
easterly flow above the surface, any fog that develops along the
Hudson River could drift westward and affect KALB for a short time
around sunrise. Will include TEMPO for IFR conditions between 09z-
11z to account for this potential. Fog is not expected at KPOU due
to increasing mid level clouds. KPSF likely to see fog development
by around 08z, with occasional IFR/LIFR conditions. Mid level clouds
will also start to increase prior to 12z, so confidence is slightly
lower there. Once any fog dissipates, mainly VFR conditions will
prevail. However, cigs should lower to MVFR levels for a time at
KPOU this morning into early afternoon. Mid level clouds will also
overspread KPSF and likely just south of KALB today. Winds will
initially be variable less than 5 kt, becoming north-northeast
around 4-6 kt by later this morning.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Gant
DISCUSSION...Gant
AVIATION...Main

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion