Chouteau, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

514
FXUS64 KTSA 201740
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- Isolated severe thunderstorms possible late today and
   this evening from northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
- Warm to hot conditions continue through Sunday, with
   temperatures moderating Monday and then cooler into next week.
- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Wednesday.
   There is a moderate chance of a more robust storm complex
   crossing the area Monday night and Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A thunderstorm complex crossed northern portions of the area
this morning.  That complex is weakening and exiting the area.
However, showers and a few thunderstorms continue a little north of
the trailing boundary that extends from near Ozark to the north
side of the Tulsa area and into Osage County. That part of the
boundary near and northwest of Tulsa should become about
stationary, as the more eastern part of the boundary drifts
a little more south. Convection along the boundary may not
completely end before new cells develop near it during peak heating
or this evening. The peak of coverage could wait until evening as
flow several thousand feet above the ground increases to near 30
knots from the west-southwest.  A few downbursts near severe
criteria are possible. There may also be a brief window / zone where
hail potential is enhanced. In general, the low-level flow may be
too weak to support wider / stronger updrafts. But the combination
of the increase in low-level flow and potential for pooling a
deeper pocket of moisture near the old boundary could result in
the potential for a few severe hail reports. This activity should
diminish overnight but may not completely end as a weak low-level
jet continues into northeast Oklahoma.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
The northwest upper-level flow pattern will continue into Wednesday
with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorm. Consensus is
developing in the data that a more robust thunderstorm complex
could track across the area Monday night and into Tuesday. Northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas appear to be most favored for that
potential, but there will be rain chances area wide. This idea is
based on the expectation that a stronger upper-level system will move
through the center of the U.S. Tuesday and Wednesday. Faster winds
aloft with and ahead of the system support a more organized storm
event.
Temperatures will gradually moderate into next week with the daily
rain chances and increase in clouds. Cooler air will spread into the
area with the passage of the upper system.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
In the near term, a cluster of storms are likely to impact KFYV,
where a tempo IFR has been inserted, with lighter shower activity
at KXNA and KROG. CAM guidance suggests that isolated to widely
scattered storms could develop this afternoon near residual
outflow boundary across NE OK and possibly near KFSM. Inserted
prob30s to cover potential for late afternoon and early evening
activity at those sites. Guidance keeps scattered activity thru
the night across NE OK and NW AR as warm advection increases with
LLJ. Used another group of prob30s to cover potential at most
sites except KMLC and KFSM which are expected to be mostly south
of the focused area. Also inserted some fog potential at KFYV
around daybreak. VFR conditions can be expected outside of storm
activity.
Lacy
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  85  69  86 /  30  50  60  40
FSM   69  91  70  86 /  30  20  40  60
MLC   68  88  70  88 /  10  30  40  50
BVO   64  82  64  86 /  40  50  60  30
FYV   64  87  65  83 /  40  30  50  70
BYV   65  87  66  82 /  40  50  50  80
MKO   67  86  68  86 /  30  30  50  60
MIO   65  84  65  84 /  50  50  60  50
F10   66  86  67  88 /  30  40  50  50
HHW   68  89  69  89 /  10  10  30  40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion