Chowchilla, California Weather Forecast Discussion

283
FXUS66 KHNX 072310
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
410 PM PDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Thick smoke from the Garnet Fire will move across the Sierra
Nevada portions of Madera, Fresno and Tulare Counties this
afternoon and overnight into Monday morning. A Dense Smoke
Advisory is in effect for poor air quality and low visibilities
affecting those areas.
2. Temperatures are expected to dip below normal today, with
further cooling expected through Thursday where highs are
expected to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
3. Thunderstorm chances are expected to return to the Sierra
Nevada by Tuesday and last through Thursday, with the greatest
chances on Wednesday and Thursday with a 10-20% probability for
development concentrated to the mountains north of Tulare
County.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures continue to cool across the region, with highs this
afternoon beginning to dip below normal, due to the incoming
trough that is currently centered off the west coast. As that
trough moves into the coastal states, temperatures will continue
to cool further below normal through at least Thursday where
highs are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this
time of year. The trough is expected to move out by Friday and
likely to be replaced with slight ridging, which would cause
temperatures to rebound back towards normal by next Sunday.
During the time the trough is aloft, it may bring in enough
energy to cause thunderstorms to develop along the Sierra Nevada
mountains and the small possibility (~20%) for a hundredth of
an inch of rain for the northwest side of the Valley, mainly in
Merced County. The thunderstorm chances as of the latest model
runs are mostly on Wednesday and Thursday at around 10-20% north
of Tulare County, with a small amount on Tuesday at 5-10%
around Yosemite NP.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z Update:
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior
for the next 24 hours. Areas of low visibility in smoke will be
lingering across the Sierra Foothills in Madera/Fresno/Tulare
Counties through 18Z Monday as southwesterly flow aloft pushes
much of the smoke upslope towards the Sierra crest.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
Dense Smoke Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for CAZ320-325>329.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Smoke Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for CAZ320-325>329.
&&
$$
public...EW
aviation....Molina
weather.gov/hanford

NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion