Clapham, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

522
FXUS65 KABQ 161939
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
139 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and brief
  heavy downpours will favor southern, central, and eastern parts
  of New Mexico through Thursday and central and southern areas on
  Friday.
- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible east of
  the central mountain chain this evening. Then, scattered severe
  thunderstorms are increasingly likely across northeast New
  Mexico Wednesday afternoon and evening with a few producing
  locally heavy rainfall.
- There will be a minor to moderate risk for burn scar flash
  flooding on Wednesday and Thursday with a minor risk for burn
  scar flash flooding across the Ruidoso area burn scars on
  Friday.
- Drier air and high pressure building overhead will help to shut
  down shower and storm chances this weekend into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Higher moisture has begun to move back north into southern and
eastern NM last night and this morning with PWATS now around 0.7 to
0.9 inches across much of these aforementioned areas and close to an
inch across far east central and southeast NM. A shortwave rotating
around the southern periphery of an upper low over the northern and
central Rockies combined with daytime heating is allow showers and
thunderstorms to develop across the southern and central high
terrain. Storms across northern NM will have a slightly quicker
motion to the east at 10 to 20 mph due to being near the stronger
flow at the base of the upper low. Meanwhile, storms along and south
of I-40 will have more of a slow and erratic motion due to lighter
steering currents overhead. In terms of the flash flood risk on the
Ruidoso area burn scars, a minor risk is still expected for this
afternoon through mid this evening as guidance from the HREF keeps
the heaviest rainfall amounts of around 0.75 to 1 inch south and
southeast of the burn scars. Finally, locations along the
Continental Divide in west central NM will be on the edge of the
higher moisture, so any showers and thunderstorms that try to
develop across this area of the state will likely be high based
resulting in little to no precipitation and gusty and erratic winds.
Any shower and thunderstorm activity will taper off around to after
sunset with lingering midlevel clouds across southern and eastern
areas overnight.
The upper low over the northern and central Rockies today pivots
east into the northern and central Great Plains Wednesday with
another shortwave diving south across the northern and central
Rockies on the backside of the upper low circulation. At the
surface, a backdoor front will be trying to enter far northeast NM,
including Colfax and Union County. With this, shower and
thunderstorm coverage will favor southern and eastern areas where
PWATS will range from around 0.7 to 1.1 inches. Northwest flow will
keep the northwest corner of the state mostly dry with PWATS around
0.3 to 0.4 inches across this part of the state. The highest
coverage of storms will be across the southern high terrain, where
the best moisture will reside, and northeast NM, along the backdoor
front. The backdoor front along with a upper level jet at the base
of the upper low will help to increase bulk shear values to 30 to 45
kts across the northeast plains allowing storms coming off the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains to grow upscale and potentially organize
into strong to severe storms. For that reason, SPC has introduced a
marginal risk for severe storms for this part of the state with the
main hazards being isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Convection across northeast NM could linger through early Thursday
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Convection across eastern CO and northeast NM Wednesday evening and
night will help push the backdoor front through much of eastern NM
come Thursday morning with a light east wind possible across the ABQ
Metro around sunrise. The backdoor front will help cool highs to 5
to 10 degrees below average across northeast and east central NM.
Upslope flow behind the backdoor front and PWAT values around 0.8 to
1 inch will set the stage for more shower and thunderstorm
development along the central mountain chain midday Thursday.
Northwest flow between the upper level ridge over NV/UT/AZ and the
upper low over the northern and central Great Plains will help
direct storms southeast into the eastern highlands and plains during
the afternoon and evening hours. Across western and central NM, dry
northwest flow on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge
will help keep shower and thunderstorm activity confined to the
southwest mountains and nearby lower elevations. Convection across
the central mountain chain Thursday could result in a moderate east
canyon wind for the ABQ Metro Thursday evening into Thursday night.
Heading into Friday, the upper level ridge slides east over the
state. However, remnant moisture from what is currently Mario in the
eastern Pacific will sling across southern CA and NV, AZ, and
central and southern NM helping to result in shower and thunderstorm
development across these areas. The highest shower and thunderstorm
coverage will favor the southwest and south central mountains. A
drying trend is expected for the weekend as an upper high over
Mexico strengthens and builds northward into the desert SW. Some
lingering moisture will result in some isolated to scattered shower
and thunderstorm development across the higher terrain on Saturday
before dry northwest flow helps reduce shower and thunderstorm
coverage to more of an isolated nature across the southern higher
terrain on Sunday. The upper high will continue to build north to
over the Great Basin pivoting east to over the Four Corners and
central Rockies early next week. This will help to basically shut
down any shower and thunderstorm activity across the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the
central and southern higher terrain this afternoon with a general
drift to the east. Shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon
and evening will favor southern and eastern areas. PROB30s have been
included for central and southern TAF sites. The risk for TAF sites
like KSAF, KABQ, and KAEG will be more in the way of gusty and
erratic winds rather than rainfall. A few storms across southern and
eastern NM could become strong to severe and produce large hail and
damaging wind gusts of up to 50 kts. Showers and storms will slowly
taper off after sunset with lingering midlevel clouds favoring
southern and eastern areas overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
No critical fire weather conditions expected through the forecast
period. Showers and thunderstorms favoring southern and eastern
areas during the afternoon and evening hours through Thursday with
some drier activity providing gusty and erratic winds across central
NM along the Continental Divide. A few storms across northeast NM
Wednesday afternoon and evening could become strong to severe with
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Moisture from the remnants of
Tropical Storm Mario in the eastern Pacific will keep a higher
coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the central and
southern higher terrain on Friday with the southwest mountains being
the most favored. A building area of high pressure along with drier
air helps to shut down shower and thunderstorm coverage this weekend
into early next week. High temperatures will be right around average
across the region, expect for northeast and east central areas being
5 to 10 degrees below average on Thursday behind a backdoor front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  81  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  39  78  35  77 /  10  10   0   5
Cuba............................  48  77  45  77 /  20  20   5  10
Gallup..........................  48  81  44  80 /   5   5   0   5
El Morro........................  49  77  47  77 /  20  20   5  10
Grants..........................  49  81  46  80 /  20  20   5  20
Quemado.........................  51  78  48  78 /  30  20   5  20
Magdalena.......................  55  76  53  75 /  40  50  10  30
Datil...........................  50  75  48  75 /  40  50  10  30
Reserve.........................  51  83  50  83 /  40  40  10  30
Glenwood........................  55  86  55  85 /  40  50  20  40
Chama...........................  41  72  38  72 /  20  20   5  10
Los Alamos......................  53  75  50  73 /  20  20  10  20
Pecos...........................  49  76  47  73 /  30  30  20  30
Cerro/Questa....................  47  75  43  72 /  20  30  20  20
Red River.......................  39  65  35  62 /  20  40  30  30
Angel Fire......................  35  70  32  67 /  20  40  20  30
Taos............................  45  77  41  75 /  20  20  20  20
Mora............................  45  73  42  69 /  20  40  30  40
Espanola........................  51  81  47  80 /  30  20  10  20
Santa Fe........................  53  77  51  75 /  20  20  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  50  80  48  77 /  20  20  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  83  58  81 /  30  30  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  85  58  82 /  20  20  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  56  86  56  84 /  20  20  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  58  85  56  82 /  20  20  10  10
Belen...........................  56  85  54  83 /  30  20  10  20
Bernalillo......................  57  86  55  84 /  20  20  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  55  85  53  83 /  20  20  10  20
Corrales........................  58  86  56  85 /  20  20  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  56  85  54  83 /  20  20  10  20
Placitas........................  56  81  54  80 /  20  20  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  58  85  56  83 /  20  20  10  10
Socorro.........................  60  85  58  85 /  30  40  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  52  76  49  74 /  30  30  10  20
Tijeras.........................  53  79  51  78 /  30  30  10  20
Edgewood........................  49  80  47  77 /  30  30  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  80  46  77 /  30  30  20  30
Clines Corners..................  50  75  48  71 /  30  30  20  30
Mountainair.....................  52  78  48  76 /  30  40  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  52  76  50  75 /  30  50  30  40
Carrizozo.......................  57  79  56  78 /  20  60  30  50
Ruidoso.........................  52  71  52  69 /  10  70  30  60
Capulin.........................  46  72  45  66 /  30  40  70  30
Raton...........................  46  76  46  70 /  20  40  50  30
Springer........................  48  79  48  73 /  20  30  40  30
Las Vegas.......................  48  76  46  70 /  30  40  30  40
Clayton.........................  55  79  53  72 /  30  30  70  20
Roy.............................  52  77  49  71 /  20  30  60  30
Conchas.........................  58  84  55  77 /  20  40  60  20
Santa Rosa......................  56  81  53  75 /  30  50  50  30
Tucumcari.......................  58  81  53  75 /  20  40  60  20
Clovis..........................  61  84  59  80 /  10  40  50  40
Portales........................  61  85  59  82 /   5  40  40  40
Fort Sumner.....................  60  84  57  80 /  10  40  40  30
Roswell.........................  61  86  61  84 /   5  30  20  30
Picacho.........................  55  81  55  78 /  10  60  20  50
Elk.............................  53  79  53  77 /  10  40  10  40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion