Clarendon, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

237
FXUS64 KAMA 090521
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1221 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
- Scattered storms may develop across portions of the Panhandles
  this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could become
  severe with large hail and damaging winds.
- High temperatures each day are forecast to be in the 80s to low
  90s.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances may return this upcoming
  weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Recent weather has proved to be quite the case for tendency of a
secondary fall peak in severe weather any given year, which may
resume again later today. Scattered storms could materialize this
afternoon-evening and would have the potential to produce large hail
up to 2 inches in diameter, as well as damaging wind gusts up to 70
mph. Warmer temperatures in the low 90s and drier air at the sfc
will help keep heavier rainfall totals at bay, limiting chances for
flooding. By Wednesday, dry air and high pressure will gradually
filter in, decreasing precipitation chances and maintaining highs in
the low 90s.
Northwest flow aloft will stick around for at least one more day
today, ushering in another disturbance to the region. Initially,
only weak amounts of lift will materialize, but in conjunction with
700mb theta-e advection, could cause a few storms to develop across
the western to central Panhandles sometime around mid-afternoon. The
underlying environment will be characterized by 1500-2500 J/kg CAPE,
1500-2000 J/kg DCAPE, and ~30 kts sfc-6km bulk shear. These
parameters suggest any organized updrafts may take full advantage of
cool mid-levels (-8 to -9C 500mb temps) and dry low-levels (inverted-
v signatures on forecast soundings) to produce severe wind and hail.
Later in the evening to overnight hours, a deeper shortwave is set
to round the crest of the upper level ridge over Kansas, and will
have about a 15% chance to generate additional showers and storms
across the northeast Panhandles. By Wed night, a strong push of dry
mid-level air will filter in from the south, ending precipitation
chances for the area. Overnight lows will be mild in the 60s.
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Global ensemble data generally agree the warm and drier trend is
perpetuated Thu-Fri as we remain sandwiched between troughing to our
east and a broad closed low churning over the western CONUS. This
pattern is generally unfavorable for precipitation, as is reflected
by NBM POPs staying 

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion