830 FXUS64 KOHX 080526 AFDOHXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1221 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
- Dry weather has returned to Middle TN and will stick around through at least the next 7 days.
- Gradual warming each day with highs pushing back into the mid 80s to lower 90s by mid week.
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.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A strong area of high pressure is set up to our north and will bring quiet weather for the start of the week. Northerly winds have pushed drier air into the region and dew points have fallen into the 40s. With clear skies and light winds early Monday we will see strong radiational cooling with chilly lows in the 40s. With the drier air mass in place fog will be less of a concern for Monday morning and is not expected. Highs will be similar on Monday to what we saw Sunday making it into the mid 70s to lower 80s.
High pressure will be drifting off to the east Monday night and that will bring southerly flow. That will keep things a bit warmer with lows falling into the 50s. Southerly flow on Tuesday will start to push dew points back into the 50s to around 60 and warm highs into the low to mid 80s. A short wave will track out of the Plains and pass to our north later Tuesday into Wednesday. Soundings saturate some with the short wave but dry air looks to remain in place aloft. With the better forcing staying north and the dry air we will remain dry but can expected some cloud cover on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
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.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A short wave trough will be tracking through the Great Lakes on Wednesday as the upper level ridge amplifies over the Plains. The short wave will bring us some cloud cover but no rain is expected. The upper level ridge will then slowly build east late week into the weekended. This will bring warming temperatures and we will see them push back into the mid 80s to lower 90s by Wednesday with more widespread 90s by the end of the week. No rain is forecasted throughout the forecast which will not help the developing drought conditions across Middle TN.
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.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
High pressure is building into Middle Tennessee from the north, so surface winds remain from the north, although we expect winds to shift to the ENE by this afternoon. Current dew point depressions are sufficiently large to be able rule out morning radiation fog except maybe along the Cumberland Plateau.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 82 57 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 82 54 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 74 51 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 80 55 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 77 54 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 74 51 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 80 55 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 81 56 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 80 54 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
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.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Rose
NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion