Clopton, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

811
FXUS62 KTAE 280549
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
149 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Satellite and surface analysis shows a shortwave trough axis
bisecting the Tri-State area with its attendant cold front pushing
east of I-75. The airmass is much drier compared to yesterday with
sat-derived Precipitable Water in the 1-1.25" range. Such values
should keep the region predominantly rain-free today outside of
potentially isolated convection over parts of the FL Big Bend and/or
Suwannee Valley this afternoon and in the vicinity of Ben Hill-Irwin
County, GA in the evening. Surface high pressure anchored across the
TN Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states fosters northeast winds, thus
limiting the seabreeze`s inland extent.
Patchy fog and/or low stratus is forecast for the I-75 corridor down
to the FL Big Bend during the early morning hrs before dissipating
shortly after sunrise. High temperatures range from the upper 80s to
low 90s under a mix of sun and a healthy fair-weather Cu field.
Widespread upper 60s+ dew points yield heat indices in the mid to
upper 90s. Overnight lows only look to drop to the upper 60s/low 70s
as a low stratus deck appears to overspread the eastern half of the
Tri-State area from the east.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
TD9 (likely Imelda) is forecast by NHC to start gaining latitude out
of the Bahamas Monday and be roughly located well offshore the north-
central Florida coast Tuesday before turning more eastward
Wednesday. Across the eastern CONUS, mid level high will be situated
in the midwest while troughing digs into the northeast US. Closer to
home, north to northeast surface winds will persist between the
backside of TD9 and ridging through the mid-south. A few showers are
possible Monday afternoon with highest rain chances (30-40%) along
I75 with lower chances (20-30%) further west into the panhandle and
southeast Alabama. Tuesday drier air works in and moisture from TD9
is hung up in the southern Appalachians before TD9 turns east
Wednesday. Therefore, the forecast is mostly dry beyond Tuesday away
from the coast. Of note, GFS/ECMWF depicts a piece of vorticity
behind TD9 which retrogrades southwest towards the Gulf coast late
week which may cause a few Gulf waters and coastal showers and have
slight chances Thursday through Saturday south of I10.
As TD9 moves east beyond Wednesday, surface high pressure
strengthens in the northeast US with ridging stretching through
the Appalachians to the Gulf coast. This will result in breezy
northeast winds through the end of the week at times and the
resultant CAD setup will spill cooler air into the Tri-State region
with highs Thursday-Friday in the mid 70s through the wiregrass to
mid 80s at the coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
LIFR conditions are expected to develop into VLD towards 09-
10Z with this area moving westward towards TLH/ABY before daybreak.
Since these two are on the western end of the depicted restrictions,
tempo LIFR conditions were added to TLH as well as kept at ABY.
Should take a few hours after sunrise to improve to VFR while
ECP/DHN will remain VFR through the period. Winds will generally be
from the northeast at 5-10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Moderate north to northeast winds will set up for the next few
days as Tropical Depression Nine moves through the Bahamas north
to off the Florida east before turning east late Tuesday into
Wednesday. As TD 9 moves away from the east coast, surface high
pressure builds down the Appalachians into the northern Gulf. This
will ratchet up the winds to cautionary levels Wednesday night
into Thursday then solid advisory levels Thursday into the
weekend. There is a low chance for Gale force gusts during this
period along with seas building to near 8 feet offshore.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Isolated showers with a a couple thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon, mainly around the Apalachicola Nat`l Forest and the
Suwannee Valley. Otherwise, a dry airmass keeps an overall lid on
convection today under prevailing NE winds.
Moisture spreads northwestward as Tropical Depression Nine (or TC
Imelda) gains latitude over the Bahamas on Monday. Rain chances
modestly increase in response, particularly along the I-75 corridor
down to the FL Big Bend.
Tuesday looks drier as TC Imelda drifts away from the NE FL/SE GA
coast and winds turn more northerly. Forecast rain chances are
confined to just east of I-75.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Over the next 7 days, most areas will see little to no
rain, and what rain does fall will likely be light with no flood
concerns on the horizon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  71  86  69 /  20   0  30   0
Panama City   91  71  89  69 /  10   0  20  10
Dothan        89  68  85  67 /   0   0  10   0
Albany        90  70  84  68 /   0   0  20  10
Valdosta      89  71  85  68 /  10  10  30  10
Cross City    91  72  88  69 /  20  10  40   0
Apalachicola  87  72  86  70 /  10  10  20  10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Scholl

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion