Clyo, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

849
FXUS62 KCHS 082149
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
549 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will prevail through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Broad troughing will prevail aloft, with the trough axis
extending southward from north of the Great Lakes towards to
Ohio River Valley. At the surface strong high pressure over New
England will continue to build into the region from the north
while a stalled boundary lingers just to the south of the
region. This set up will result in a pinched pressure gradient
between the building high pressure and the boundary to the
south. Gusty NE winds will persist into this afternoon,
generally around 15 to 20 mph. Showers will persist to the south
of the region, where the stalled boundary is located. While
some shower activity could approach coastal southeastern GA
where PoPs are around 25%, a dry forecast exists elsewhere. As
cloud cover begins to erode this afternoon temperatures should
quickly jump into the upper 70s to near 80, however at locations
where cloud cover lingers high temps may only reach into the
low to mid 70s.
Little change in the synoptic pattern is forecast overnight,
with partly cloudy conditions and overnight lows in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday through Thursday: Aloft, troughing will prevail across the
eastern CONUS through the mid week time period. At the surface, high
pressure will extend along the Eastern Seaboard while a front
continues to sit offshore. A couple of weak areas of low pressure
could develop along the offshore front during this time, from the
area off the GA/FL coast up to off the NC Outer Banks. The end
result is that the model consensus generally favors a dry forecast
for the forecast area with this setup. Temperatures will start off
well below normal on Tuesday, with highs peaking around 80 for
southeast SC, and into the low 80s for southeast GA. Temperatures
are then expected to steadily warm, with highs peaking in the mid to
upper 80s for most of the area by Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The pattern isn`t expected to change significantly through the
weekend as troughing persists aloft and high pressure remains the
primary feature at the surface. Overall, the forecast continues to
look dry with precipitation remaining offshore. Temperatures are
expected to remain at or slightly below normal through the period
for most locations, with the warmest values across interior
southeast GA where lows 90s will be possible at times.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
09/00z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through the period. Gusty winds will
diminish a bit this evening, then increase again after daybreak
Tuesday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR though there could be a few
periods of restricted ceilings due to late night/early morning
stratus.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds have yet to respond in the Charleston Harbor and have
remained below Small Craft Advisory levels. If this trend
continues, the advisory may be cancelled.
Tonight: A stalled front will be positioned just south of the
local waters through the period while high pressure build in
across the land zones. This will yield a pinched pressure
gradient, resulting in gusty NE winds. Gusts this afternoon and
tonight are forecast to be around 25 to 30 knots, with up to 25
knots in the Charleston Harbor. Additionally seas initially 4 to
5 ft across the nearshore and 5 to 6 ft across the 20 to 60 nm
offshore GA waters will build to 6 to 7 ft overnight. Small
Craft Advisories are in effect for all marine zones, including
the Charleston Harbor.
Tuesday through Saturday: The setup will continue to support
northeast flow across the local waters through the week. Winds will
be strongest on Tuesday, then gradually diminish through Thursday as
the gradient weakens a bit. Then late in the week and into the start
of the weekend the gradient should tighten again and support another
surge of northeast flow. Small Craft Advisories are already in
effect for all local waters and will continue into Wednesday, with
different zones coming down at various times. All advisories should
be down by Wednesday night.
Rip Currents: The combination of persistent northeast winds,
astronomical factors, and elevated swell will yield a high risk of
rip currents at all beaches on Tuesday. An elevated risk of rip
currents is expected to continue through Wednesday.
High Surf: NWPS breaking wave guidance shows 4-5 ft breaking
waves occurring along Sapelo Island into the unpopulated
beaches of Liberty County tonight into Tuesday. The situation
looks too marginal for a High Surf Advisory for coastal portions
of McIntosh and Liberty Counties at this time, but this will
need to be watched carefully. High Surf Advisories are issued
for breaking waves of 5 ft or greater.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide levels will remain elevated through the rest of
the week due to the recent full moon and upcoming lunar perigee
(9/10). Total water levels will also be high with the tidal
departure increasing due to the pinched pressure gradient/ elevated
northeast winds.
Charleston Harbor:
- Moderate coastal flooding is expected for the next four (4) high
tide cycles.
- Minor flooding is possible for the Wednesday evening high tide.
Fort Pulaski:
- Minor coastal flooding is expected for the next four (4) high tide
cycles.
- There is also around a 10% chance of moderate coastal flooding for
this evening`s and Tuesday morning`s high tide.
Tidal departures will then start to come down Thursday into Friday
as the pressure gradient beings to relax.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to noon EDT Tuesday for
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for
     SCZ048>051.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to noon EDT Tuesday for
     SCZ048>051.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ330.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ350-352-
     354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ374.
&&
$$

NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion