801 FXUS64 KOHX 020342 AFDOHXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1042 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1032 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Dry with warmer than normal temperatures through at least this weekend.
- Low chance (20-30%) rain could return by Monday/Tuesday next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Another pleasant night is upon us with mostly clear skies and temperatures dropping into upper 50s to low 60s. An area of higher pressure over the northeast is gradually dropping south, and with surface winds remaining out of the ESE, slightly drier air will be advected into the area. This will hamper fog development overnight, keeping it confined to valleys. We`ll see temperatures just a few degrees cooler tomorrow as the center of the ridge shifts east with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight temps in the in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
High pressure will continue to dominate our weather through the weekend. We will see a gradual increase in moisture as the large area of high pressure over the Atlantic starts to break down. This increase in moisture will carry into next week, bringing low to medium rain chances back into the forecast starting Monday. The overall upper air pattern beyond Sunday favors temperates closer to seasonal norms (near 80) as well as better rain chances. Tonight`s guidance suggests a cold front moving through the area sometime during the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe, and though it`s far too early to discuss specifics, it is a safe bet to maintain widespread 30% rain chances at this time.
&&
.AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A surface ridge remains in the vicinity of Middle Tennessee this evening, so TAFs are VFR, with the exception of overnight radiation fog and possible low stratus at KCSV and especially KSRB.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 88 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 62 90 60 86 / 0 10 0 0 Crossville 56 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 62 86 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 60 81 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 58 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 62 84 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 63 85 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 63 87 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
$$
SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Rose
NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion