Coker Creek, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

920
FXUS64 KMRX 010542
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
142 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 109 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- One last warmer than normal day today before temperatures trend
  towards where they should be for early October.
- Dry weather can be expected at least through the weekend. Rain
  chances return early next week, but details are uncertain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
The forecast area sits under amplified ridging aloft, strong
surface high pressure over Quebec, and two tropical systems on
their way out to sea. Over the next couple of days, surface high
pressure is expected to sink southward out of Canada, meanwhile,
ridging aloft will broaden across much of the country. Deep
troughing then develops over the PNW and will eventually shift our
direction this coming weekend into next week.
Albeit drier than yesterday humidity-wise, today will also be a
couple of degrees warmer. Thursday onward, we can expect
temperatures to trend a bit cooler, or around normal for early
October. Drier air will also accompany the cooler temperatures at
least through the weekend until moisture returns. Uncertainty
grows the later in the forecast period as far as when and where
precipitation will return and fall. A Gulf Coast frontal boundary
is forecast to develop which may advect moisture northward, as
well as a cold front approaching from the west.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Clouds are still much more prominent than guidance would suggest
they should be. Thus, I think any fog development will be limited to
after 10z when high clouds should begin to clear out from the north.
Would expect that this time line would mean that KTRI would be
the only site where it`s possible, as clouds will be clearing from
north to south, but confidence is too low to include. Otherwise,
some remnant low clouds near KCHA will dissipate within a few
hours for a return to VFR at all sites. Winds will be light and
north- northeasterly through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             86  62  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  84  59  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       84  58  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  53  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...CD

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion