Coleridge, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

090
FXUS62 KRAH 191920
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
320 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area through Saturday. A weak
backdoor cold front will slide south through the area late Saturday
and Saturday night. This will be followed by more high pressure
Sunday into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Friday...
Weak surface high pressure persists across the region, with a
stronger area of high pressure extending south from Ontario and
Quebec that is dropping a backdoor cold front which is currently
over the northern Mid-Atlantic. This front will remain well to our
north through tonight. Looking aloft, weak ridging will persist,
and GOES water vapor imagery depicts ample dry air over the southern
Mid-Atlantic. Composite reflectivity shows any pop-up showers from
shortwave energy and daytime heating remaining well to our south
over GA and southern SC, with only scattered shallow cumulus beneath
the subsidence inversion over central NC. Lowered forecast dew
points this afternoon, as they have mixed out into the mid-to-upper-
50s over much of the Piedmont, with lower-to-mid-60s elsewhere. The
dry air and dry soils are helping temperatures reach the upper-80s
to lower-90s.
Mostly clear skies and mostly calm winds tonight will help low
temperatures reach the lower-to-mid-60s, with statistical guidance
showing some upper-50s in the usual cool spots can`t be ruled out.
This will also aid the development of shallow ground fog and low
stratus once again, based on most high-res guidance and what
occurred this morning, as there will be little change in the overall
weather pattern. The best chance for dense fog will again be in the
Coastal Plain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Friday...
* Mostly dry backdoor cold front should pass through the region
  Saturday night.
Above normal temperatures will continue Saturday ahead of a weak
backdoor cold frontal passage. High temperatures are expected to
reach the mid 80s in the north to the upper 80s in the south. A
backdoor cold front should reach the region from the north Saturday
night. A lack of moisture will diminish rain chances, however a very
isolated shower cannot be ruled out especially in the north Saturday
evening/night. Behind the front, a deck of low stratus looks likely
to develop in the north and east Saturday night. Low temperatures
should dip into the low-to-mid 60s overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...
* Near to above normal temperatures expected through the period.
* Precipitation chances return early-middle next week, though some
  uncertainty exists.
Aloft, the departing s/w should lift newd away from the area on Sun.
Next, a nrn stream s/w should track ewd across the Great Lakes/srn
Ontario Sun night/Mon, while a srn stream s/w moves across the
lwr/mid MS Valley. Yet another nrn stream s/w will move across the
Pacific NW Sun night then continue sewd across the Intermountain
West Mon/Mon night. This s/w will become the dominant low mid-late
week. A longwave trough will amplify and, encompassing all three
shortwaves, extend from ern Quebec swwd to the cntl/srn Rockies by
Mon night/Tue. The trough and embedded shortwaves/lows will continue
progressing slowly ewd Tue and Wed, with the aforementioned dominant
s/w low closing off over the cntl Plains/mid-MS Valley on Wed. This
low could become cutoff west of the Appalachians by Thu, with
ridging to the east, however the location and strength of the low
varies between the available guidance. The low should drift slowly
nnewd through Fri, eventually getting picked up by the nrn stream
flow again sometime Fri or Sat. At the surface, the 1020+ mb high
over the Northeast will continue ridging swwd into the area as it
shifts ewd over the nrn Atlantic on Sun. Meanwhile, the inverted
trough and possibly embedded coastal low, will linger off the East
Coast, weakening/moving away from the region Sun night as the ridge
persists over the area. The ridge/high will gradually shift ewd and
offshore Mon/Mon night. A trough may move across the region Tue/Wed,
while a low pressure system develops over the mid-MS Valley and high
pressure progresses sewd across ern Canada. The high will try to
ridge swd across the mid-Atlantic as the low lifts nwd toward the
Great Lakes on Thu, however the differences noted aloft are also
present at the surface.
Precipitation: The forecast should be largely dry through Tue/Tue
night, although a stray shower cannot be ruled out on Sun. Forecast
uncertainty increases mid-late week noting the differences among the
guidance wrt the low pressure system to the west. With that in mind,
chances for showers/storm return for Wed through Fri.
Temperatures: Near to above normal temperatures should prevail
through the end of the week. Warmest day will be Wed or Thu, coolest
Fri.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Friday...
24-hour TAF period: There is high confidence in VFR conditions and
dry weather across central NC through this evening, with only some
scattered cumulus around 5-8 kft. With little change in the weather
pattern tonight along with very light to calm winds and mostly clear
skies, more patchy ground fog and low stratus will be possible
mainly in the east (including RDU, FAY and RWI). This is backed up
by most high-res guidance as well as a persistence forecast from
what occurred this morning. IFR to LIFR conditions will be possible,
especially at RWI. The best chance is from 09z to 13z, with any fog
quickly dissipating after that. Winds will be light and variable
today, decreasing to mostly calm tonight and increasing to 5-8 kts
from the NE tomorrow mid morning to early afternoon.
Outlook: A backdoor cold front will move through on Saturday night.
Expect VFR conditions Saturday, with IFR to LIFR ceilings and
visibilities possible late Saturday night and early Sunday. Then,
VFR will return for the rest of Sunday, with a return to IFR
possible on Sunday night, though confidence is low. VFR will return
on Monday and Tuesday, with the next chance of rain (and sub-VFR
conditions) on Wednesday.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Danco/RAH

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion