Cologne, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

922
FXUS64 KCRP 070552
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1252 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of flash flooding today
- Minor to Moderate Heat Risk for the next several days
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Most of the overnight activity thus far has remain in the western
Brush Country and along the Rio Grande Plains. Storm motions have
been slow (00Z KCRP sfc-6km mean wind at 5 kts) allowing showers
and thunderstorms to dump 1.5-2.5 inch amounts NW of Laredo. For
the remainder of the early morning hours, this upper-level energy
will push further east. CAMS have a secondary area of showers and
thunderstorms developing between 2-4am CDT generally south of a
line from Freer to Corpus Christi. The more aggressive CAMS want
to dump 2-4 inches in the strongest storms wherever the develop.
Soils can still handle a lot of what may fall, but too high of
rainfall rates may lead to brief ponding and nuisance flooding in
low-lying/poor drainage areas. We will continue to monitor these
trends and latest CAM runs to see if any updates are needed to the
forecast. These showers will continue through late-morning before
another batch comes in from the northwest in the afternoon (still
scattered in coverage). Most shower and rain activity wind down
in intensity/coverage after sunset today. With all this in place,
WPC still has all of South Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)
for Excessive Rainfall today.
Monday`s will see one last batch of showers and thunderstorms move
through the region with highest amounts along the coast. From
Tuesday, shower activity generally remains south of a stalled
front, keeping low chances (15-25%) of PoPs along the coast and
south of the Kingsville area. North of this stalled front, winds
will primarily be out of the east/northeast, bringing in slightly
drier air. This will keep our temperatures under 100F for highs
(with the exception of the northern Brush Country Tuesday and
Wednesday due to min RH`s dropping to near 30%). Areas in the
Victoria Crossroads have the best chance of having low
temperatures on Monday and Tuesday night (near 65F).
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Not much change from the previous forecast. A mix of VFR/MFR is
expected for the the first two thirds of this TAF cycle with VFR
conditions taking for the rest of the period. The slight change with
this package is leaning more towards VFR rather than MVFR as high
resolution models are now calling for a lull in the activity
overnight before picking back up Sunday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Northeasterly flow increase from gentle (BF 3) to moderate (BF 4)
strength with near 2 ft seas. Similar conditions remain through
the forecast period. Chances for showers and thunderstorms have a
moderate chance (50-70%) of developing today, and remaining low
(around 30% chance) for the remainder for the forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  76  90  73 /  70  50  50  10
Victoria          91  71  93  66 /  70  30  10   0
Laredo            93  75  94  73 /  80  60  60  10
Alice             92  73  93  71 /  70  50  50  10
Rockport          90  76  90  75 /  70  60  50  10
Cotulla           91  74  93  73 /  70  40  30   0
Kingsville        91  73  90  71 /  70  50  60  10
Navy Corpus       89  79  88  79 /  70  70  60  20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...JCP/84

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion